波罗的海交易所的干散货海运指数追踪运载干散货商品的船舶的运价，周四连续第八个交易日下跌，下跌69点，至2023年2月以来的新低，为824点，原因是本月晚些时候中国农历假期前的季节性需求下降。反映运输铁矿石和煤炭等货物的大型船舶运价的好望角型油轮运价指数下跌155点，至五周多来的低点1081点；巴拿马型油轮指数下降39点，至2020年6月以来的最低水平，为804点，该指数通常与运载6万至7万吨煤炭或粮食的船舶有关。在较小的船只中，supramax指数下跌20点，跌至2023年2月以来的新低，为654点。

The Baltic Exchange's dry bulk sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, was down for an eighth consecutive session on Thursday, falling 69 points to a new low since February 2023 at 824 points, amid seasonal lower demand ahead of China's Lunar Holiday later in the month. The capesize index, reflecting rates for large vessels transporting cargoes like iron ore and coal, slumped 155 points to an over five-week low of 1,081 points; and the panamax index, typically associated with ships carrying 60,000-70,000 tons of coal or grain, dropped 39 points to its lowest since June 2020 at 804 points. Among smaller vessels, the supramax index shed 20 points to a fresh low since February 2023 at 654 points.

周四，10年期美国国债收益率升至6.65%大关，延续了前两个交易日近三周低点4.58%的反弹，因为市场继续评估美国总统特朗普的政策承诺可能如何影响宏观经济背景并引发美联储的回应。这位宣誓就职的总统在接受媒体采访时，除了发出减税信号和促进人工智能基础设施投资外，还威胁要对中国、欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥和其他金砖国家征收关税，所有这些都与可能带来促通胀压力的扩张性财政政策相一致。尽管如此，市场仍押注美国央行将在今年降息，目前定价为第三季度。最新数据显示，经常性失业申请人数升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，表明劳动力市场疲软，尽管历史强劲。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward the 6.65% mark on Thursday, extending the rebound from the near three-week low of 4.58% two sessions earlier as markets continued to assess the how policy pledges by US President Trump may impact the macroeconomic backdrop and trigger a response by the Fed. The sworn-in President issued threats of tariffs against China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other BRICS nations when talking to the press, in addition to signaling tax cuts and facilitating AI infrastructure investment, all aligned with expansionary fiscal policy that risks pro-inflationary pressures. Still, markets maintained bets that the US central bank is due to deliver a rate cut this year, currently priced for the third quarter. The latest data showed that recurring unemployment claims rose to their highest since November 2021, indicating a softer, albeit historically strong, labor market.

周四，Ibovespa指数上涨0.3%，超过123000点，创下五周新高，这得益于对中国需求增强的乐观情绪和对巴西财政纪律的重新信心。巴西国家石油公司和淡水河谷等大宗商品为主的股票分别上涨了约1%和0.5%，这得益于中国宣布大规模注资以稳定市场，这可能会增加对石油和铁矿石等巴西出口产品的需求。巴西银行领涨，涨幅超过2%，而Suzano和Rede D'Or各上涨1.5%以上。

The Ibovespa climbed 0.3% on Thursday, surpassing 123,000 points to reach a five-week high, driven by optimism surrounding stronger Chinese demand and renewed confidence in Brazil’s fiscal discipline. Commodity-heavy stocks, such as Petrobras and Vale, rose approximately 1% and 0.5%, respectively, bolstered by China’s announcement of substantial state fund injections to stabilize its markets, which could enhance demand for Brazilian exports like oil and iron ore. Domestically, the Lula administration's emphasis on inflation control and fiscal responsibility, reiterated by Chief of Staff Rui Costa, supported market sentiment amid ongoing deliberations on food price interventions. Banco do Brasil led gains, climbing over 2%, while Suzano and Rede D’Or advanced more than 1.5% each.

大豆期货交易价格约为每蒲式耳10.58美元，低于1月21日触及的六个月高点10.67美元，因为预计顶级生产国巴西的有利天气条件缓和了对供应的担忧。尽管收成缓慢，但分析人士仍对巴西的丰收持乐观态度，阿根廷炎热干燥的天气造成的任何作物损失预计都将被巴西的产量抵消。据商品气象组织称，巴西南部和巴拉圭下周可能会有所缓解，巴西北部的干旱条件有助于早期收获，尽管潮湿天气将短暂恢复。在阿根廷，科尔多瓦、圣达菲和恩特雷里奥斯等关键地区的降雨应该会改善北部的湿度水平，但南部和中部地区的干旱状况将持续存在。与此同时，周三有消息称，由于货物不符合植物健康要求，中国已停止从五家巴西公司运送大豆，此后对需求的担忧加剧。

Soybean futures traded around $10.58 per bushel, down from a six-month peak of $10.67 hit on January 21st, as anticipated favorable weather conditions in top producer Brazil tempered concerns about supplies. Despite a slow harvest, analysts remain optimistic about a bumper crop in Brazil, with any crop loss due to Argentina’s hot, dry weather expected to be offset by Brazil's production. According to Commodity Weather Group, southern Brazil and Paraguay could see relief next week, with dry conditions in northern Brazil aiding the early harvest, though wet weather is set to return briefly. In Argentina, rain in key regions like Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios should improve moisture levels in the north, but dry conditions are set to persist in the south and central areas. At the same time, concerns over demand grew after news on Wednesday that China had halted soybean shipments from five Brazilian firms due to cargoes failing to meet plant health requirements.