欧洲股市收盘上涨，西班牙Ibex领涨。欧洲主要指数的价格收盘走高，并在2025年德国Dax指数中继续上涨，上涨0.74%。今年价格上涨了7.55%，创下了历史新高。

European shares close higher led by Spain's Ibex.The price of the major European indices are closing higher and continueing the run in 2025 German Dax, +0.74%. The price is up 7.55% this year, and closed at a new record.

堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的制造业生产指数在2025年1月比上月下降了3个点，降至-9，为2024年9月以来的最低水平。最新数据显示，地区工厂活动温和收缩，标志着连续第三个月下降。这是由于材料库存（-11比12月的0）和成品（2比5）大幅下降。新订单继续下降，但速度较慢（-6比-16）。

The Kansas City Fed’s Manufacturing Production Index fell by three points from the previous month to -9 in January 2025, the lowest level since September 2024. The latest data revealed a modest contraction in regional factory activity, marking the third consecutive month of decline. This was driven by a sharper drop in materials inventories (-11 vs. 0 in December) and finished goods (2 vs. 5). New orders continued to decline, though at a slower pace (-6 vs. -16).

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在达沃斯论坛上发表讲话，重点讨论能源政策，WTI原油价格跌至每桶75美元。特朗普强调了他早期的行政行动，包括宣布国家能源紧急状态以“释放我们脚下的流动黄金”，并优先考虑美国的石油和天然气开发。他吹捧退出巴黎气候协议和废除他所谓的“绿色新骗局”等措施，强调能源发展是他政府降低消费者成本计划的基石。与此同时，美国石油协会的数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加了100万桶，燃料库存也急剧增加，官方数据尚未公布。市场对特朗普的潜在政策举措仍持谨慎态度，包括针对中国、加拿大和墨西哥的关税威胁，以及对俄罗斯的额外制裁。作为回应，由于预计可能征收关税，加拿大对美国的石油出口激增。

WTI crude oil slipped to $75 per barrel as US President Donald Trump addressed the Davos forum, focusing on energy policy. Trump highlighted his early executive actions, including declaring a national energy emergency to "unlock the liquid gold under our feet" and prioritizing US oil and gas development. He touted steps such as withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and repealing what he called the “green new scam,” emphasizing energy development as a cornerstone of his administration's plans to lower consumer costs. Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a 1 million-barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, along with a sharp rise in fuel stockpiles, with official figures still pending. Markets remain cautious about Trump’s potential policy moves, including tariff threats targeting China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as additional sanctions on Russia. In response, Canadian oil shipments to the US have surged in anticipation of possible tariffs.

美元走低，首次申请失业救济人数上升：欧元/美元、英镑/美元、美元/加元、美元/日元分析。美元指数正在向108.00水平回落。

U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Initial Jobless Claims Rise: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY.U.S. Dollar Index is moving back towards the 108.00 level.

受供应担忧的推动，橡胶期货价格继续攀升，超过每公斤198美分，达到2024年12月中旬以来的最高水平。泰国是世界领先的橡胶生产国，正面临恶劣的天气条件，当局警告称，大雨可能会导致山洪暴发，扰乱天然橡胶生产。与此同时，越南橡胶协会（VRA）对2025年该行业的前景持乐观态度，预计出口收入将以10%的年增长率增长至110亿美元以上。新加坡的贸易商还注意到中国买家的强劲实物需求。此外，新加坡的贸易商注意到中国经销商的强劲需求，预计中国不断扩大的汽车行业将继续推动橡胶消费。

Rubber futures continued their climb, surpassing 198 cents per kilogram to reach their highest level since mid-December 2024, driven by renewed supply concerns. Thailand, the world’s leading producer, is facing adverse weather conditions, with authorities warning of heavy rains that could cause flash floods and disrupt natural rubber production. Meanwhile, the Vietnam Rubber Association (VRA) is optimistic about the industry’s prospects for 2025, forecasting a 10% annual growth in export revenue to over $11 billion. Traders in Singapore also noted robust physical demand from Chinese buyers. In addition, traders in Singapore noted solid demand from Chinese dealers, and China’s expanding automotive sector is expected to continue fueling rubber consumption.

日本央行可能将加息至17年来的最高水平，预示着将有更多加息。日本央行预计将于周五将利率上调至2008年全球金融危机以来的最高水平，因为全球股市的普遍反弹平息了政策制定者对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税威胁可能颠覆市场的担忧。

BOJ likely to raise rates to highest in 17 years, signal more hikes.The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on Friday to levels unseen since the 2008 global financial crisis, as a broad worldwide stocks rally calms policymakers' fears U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff threats could upend markets.

美联储预览：不偷聚光灯。即将公布的数据使鲍威尔没有理由偏离12月概述的路线。在将限制减少100个基点后，随着经济增长下行风险的缓解，美联储将在1月份暂停其降息周期，以评估即将公布的数据，尤其是新政府即将出台的财政和贸易政策。

Fed Preview: Not Stealing the Spotlight.Incoming data has provided Powell with no reason to deviate from the course outlined in December. After reducing restraint by 100bp and as downside risks to economic growth have eased, the Fed will pause its cutting cycle in January to evaluate incoming data and not least the upcoming fiscal and trade policies from the new administration.

欧洲央行预测：无新信号。欧洲央行最近几个季度的框架侧重于数据依赖性，而不是使用其三层反应函数的数据点依赖性，这导致市场交易自己的叙述，因为欧洲央行选择在短期内不发出政策前景的信号。虽然欧洲央行不想依赖数据点，但我们发现，由于劳动力市场和增长前景的不确定性增加，欧洲央行很难不对及时收到的数据进行权衡。

ECB Preview: No New Signals.The ECB's framework in recent quarters, focusing on data dependency and not data point dependency using its three-tiered reaction function, has led markets to trade its own narrative, as the ECB has chosen not to signal the policy outlook beyond the very near term. While it does not want to be data-point dependent, we find it difficult for the ECB not to weigh timely incoming data due to the elevated uncertainty surrounding the labour market and growth outlook.

美国天然气期货收窄涨幅，交易价格在3.97美元/百万英热单位左右，此前又出现了一次重大的库存减少，但低于预期。最新的EIA报告显示，在截至1月17日的一周内，美国公用事业公司撤回了2230亿立方英尺（bcf）的天然气，使总库存达到2892亿立方英尺。这低于市场对2440亿立方英尺下降的预期。分析师预测，在截至1月24日的一周内，由于供暖需求增加，将有超过2000亿立方英尺的进一步提款，这可能会消除与五年平均水平相比的库存小幅过剩。然而，随着1月下旬至2月初天气预报转暖，预计需求将有所缓解。此外，自由港液化天然气出口工厂的天然气流量将从11周低点上升，此前冬季风暴期间的电力问题迫使该工厂于周二关闭。

US natural gas futures pared some gains to trade around $3.97/MMBtu following another significant storage draw, though smaller than anticipated. The latest EIA report showed that US utilities withdrew 223 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas in the week ending January 17, bringing total stockpiles to 2,892 bcf. This fell short of market expectations for a 244 bcf decrease. Analysts predict further withdrawals exceeding 200 bcf for the week ending January 24, driven by heightened heating demand, which could eliminate the small surplus in inventories compared to the five-year average. However, demand is expected to ease as milder weather is forecast from late January into early February. In addition, natural gas flows to Freeport LNG's export plant were set to rise from an 11-week low, after a power problem during a winter storm forced it to shut on Tuesday.

墨西哥比索兑美元升值至20.4，从今年早些时候的三年低点20.85回升，因为最近的通胀数据支持了Banxico官员的鹰派观点，缓和了对货币政策持续宽松的预期。虽然墨西哥的年度整体通胀率在1月中旬降至3.69%，为四年来的最低水平，但核心通胀率反弹至3.72%，高于3.68%的预测，表明价格压力持续存在。此外，在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普没有立即采取关税行动的情况下，对美国贸易政策可能放缓的乐观情绪缓解了市场的担忧。墨西哥稳健的经济基本面，包括Banxico对2025年GDP增长1.2%的保守预测，进一步支撑了比索的反弹。

The Mexican peso appreciated toward 20.4 per USD, recovering from a three-year low of 20.85 seen earlier this year, as recent inflation data bolstered hawkish arguments among Banxico officials, tempering expectations of continued easing of monetary policy. While Mexico's annual headline inflation fell to 3.69% in mid-January, its lowest in four years, core inflation rebounded to 3.72%, above forecasts of 3.68%, signaling persistent price pressures. Additionally, optimism surrounding potential moderation in US trade policies, amid the absence of immediate tariff actions by US President Donald Trump, eased market concerns. Mexico’s solid economic fundamentals, including Banxico’s conservative 2025 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%, further supported the peso's rebound.

自去年12月中旬以来，由于美元总体走强和持续的投机性抛售，美国棉花期货交易价格低于每磅70美分。与此同时，交易员继续权衡供需前景。美国农业部1月份的《世界农业供需估计》（WASDE）报告预测，2024/25作物年的产量和期末库存将增加，这加剧了下降的势头。美国棉花产量估计增加了159000包，达到1440万包，而期末库存增加了400000包，达到480万包。在全球范围内，产量增加了200万包，其中中国的作物贡献巨大。世界消费量增加了10万包，因为孟加拉国和越南的增长抵消了 火鸡

U.S. cotton futures traded below 70 cents per pound since mid-December last year, amid the dollar's general strength and due to ongoing speculative selling. Meanwhile, traders continued to weigh the supply and demand outlook. The USDA's January World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projected higher production and ending stocks for the 2024/25 crop year, adding to the downward momentum. U.S. cotton production estimates were increased by 159,000 bales to 14.4 million, while ending stocks rose by 400,000 bales to 4.8 million. Globally, production was raised by 2 million bales, with China's crop contributing significantly. World consumption was raised by 100,000 bales as increases in Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset a reduction for Turkey.

在截至1月17日的一周内，美国公用事业公司从储存中提取了2330亿立方英尺的天然气，达到2896亿立方英尺，而市场预期将大幅提取2440亿立方尺。这是继去年预期的撤资季节开始后连续第十次撤资。在多个南部州的冷锋中，中南部地区的降幅最大（-77亿立方英尺），中西部（-64亿立方英尺”）和东部（-56亿立方英尺“）的降幅也最大。库存比上年同期下降1.9%，但仍比目前的五年平均水平高0.7%。

US utilities withdrew 233 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage to 2,896 bcf in the week ending January 17th, compared to market expectations of a sharper draw of 244 billion cubic feet. It was the tenth consecutive draw in inventories following an anticipated start of the withdrawal season last year. The sharpest drops were seen in the South Central region (-77 bcf) amid the cold front in multiple southern states, in addition to sharper drops in the Midwest (-64 bcf) and the East (-56 bcf). Inventories are 1.9% below the corresponding period of the previous year, but remain 0.7% above the ongoing five-year average.

美国4周期票据拍卖：4.265%对4.24%。美国4周期票据拍卖：4.265%对4.24%

United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.265% vs 4.24%.United States 4-Week Bill Auction: 4.265% vs 4.24%

据初步估计，欧元区消费者信心指数在2025年1月小幅改善至-14.2，上升0.3点，符合市场预期。消费者仍然乐观地认为，欧洲央行今年将继续降息。投资者已经将存款利率从1月30日的3%下调，预计到年底基准利率将降至2%。12月份的通货膨胀率为2.4%，预计到年中将降至欧洲央行2%的目标，这主要是由于经济前景疲软抑制了价格压力。与此同时，在更广泛的欧盟，消费者信心稳定在-13.3。

The consumer confidence indicator in the Euro Area improved slightly to -14.2 in January 2025, up by 0.3 points and in line with market expectations, according to preliminary estimates. Consumers remain optimistic that the European Central Bank will continue cutting rates this year. Investors have already priced in a reduction in the deposit rate from 3% on January 30, with expectations for the benchmark rate to drop to 2% by year-end. Inflation, which stood at 2.4% in December, is projected to ease to the ECB's 2% target by mid-year, largely due to a weak economic outlook dampening price pressures. Meanwhile, in the broader European Union, consumer sentiment held steady at -13.3.

美国堪萨斯联邦储备银行1月份制造业活动保持不变，为-5。美国堪萨斯联邦储备银行1月份制造业活动保持不变，为-5

United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity remains unchanged at -5 in January.United States Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity remains unchanged at -5 in January