周二，新西兰元在0.565美元左右仍然疲软，在假日周交易清淡。新西兰元相对保持在两年低点附近，受到新西兰储备银行进一步宽松货币政策预期的压力。上周，新西兰经济在上一季度修正后下降1.1%后，在9月份季度环比收缩了1%。这比市场预期的0.4%的收缩更糟糕，正式将该国推入衰退。出乎意料的疲软经济数据导致投资者完全消化了新西兰联储2月份降息50个基点的影响。周一，在有利的通胀数据支持了美联储进一步降息的预期后，美元小幅宽松短暂支撑了人民币汇率。

The New Zealand dollar remained weak around $0.565 on Tuesday, trading thinly amid the holiday week. The Kiwi dollar stayed relatively near a two-year low, pressured by expectations of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Last week, New Zealand's economy contracted by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the September quarter, following a revised 1.1% decline in the previous period. This was worse than the market's expected 0.4% contraction, officially pushing the country into recession. The unexpectedly weak economic data has led investors to fully price in a 50 basis point rate cut by the RBNZ in February. On Monday, the currency briefly found support from a slight easing in the US dollar, after favorable inflation data supported expectations for more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

周二，布伦特原油期货价格上涨至每桶73美元，在假期前交易清淡的情况下扭转了前一交易日的跌幅。美国最新数据显示，关键消费国的经济在年底前保持强劲，石油找到了支撑。此外，11月印度原油进口量同比增长2.6%，达到1907万吨，这得益于经济和旅游活动不断增长的强劲需求。然而，对明年潜在供应过剩的担忧使价格承压。欧洲的供应担忧也有所缓解，此前有报道称，在俄罗斯一个泵站出现技术问题后，德鲁日巴管道恢复了运营。与此同时，美元走强对以美元计价的大宗商品造成了压力，亚洲最大的炼油商中石化最近的评论预测中国的石油消费量将在2027年达到峰值，这进一步增加了压力。

Brent crude oil futures rose toward $73 per barrel on Tuesday, reversing losses from the previous session amid thin pre-holiday trading. Oil found support after fresh US data indicated that the economy of the key consumer remained strong heading into the year-end. Additionally, India's crude oil imports increased 2.6% year-on-year to 19.07 million metric tons in November, driven by strong demand amid rising economic and travel activity. However, concerns about potential oversupply next year kept prices under pressure. European supply fears also eased after reports that the Druzhba pipeline resumed operations following technical issues at a Russian pumping station. At the same time, a stronger US dollar weighed on the dollar-denominated commodity, and recent comments from Asia’s top refiner, Sinopec, projecting China’s oil consumption to peak in 2027, added further pressure.

周二，黄金价格在假期交易疲软的情况下上涨至每盎司2610美元以上。投资者继续评估美联储明年的前景，考虑到在美联储表示减少降息后，2025年加息速度放缓。然而，这一观点受到了低于预期的美国个人消费支出通胀的挑战，这表明有可能进一步降息，这有利于无收益的黄金。与此同时，世界黄金协会报告称，央行需求强劲，强化了黄金作为避险资产的地位，央行在15年多的时间里一直是净买家。受央行买入、地缘政治紧张局势和主要银行放松政策的推动，金价今年有望飙升27%，创下2010年以来的最佳表现。

Gold rose above $2,610 per ounce on Tuesday amid subdued holiday-season trading. Investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s outlook for next year, factoring in a slower pace of rate hikes in 2025 after the Fed signaled fewer reductions. However, this view was challenged by softer-than-expected US PCE inflation, suggesting the possibility of more rate cuts, which benefits a non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council reported strong central bank demand, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset, with central banks as net buyers for over 15 years. The metal is on track for a 27% surge this year, heading for its best performance since 2010, driven by central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and easing by major banks.

澳大利亚储备银行12月政策会议纪要显示，澳大利亚的通胀风险有所缓解，但不确定性依然存在，特别是在全球经济状况和持续的服务业通胀方面。它补充说，在成员国确信通货膨胀正在可持续地恢复到2-3%的目标之前，货币政策需要保持足够的限制性。潜在通胀率仍高达3-1/2%左右，远高于目标的2-1/2%中点。董事会强调了未来利率决策的数据驱动方法，重申将通胀恢复到目标水平是首要任务。在国内方面，2024年第三季度经济产出增长疲软。虽然最近的数据显示10月和11月的消费有所回升，但现在确定这是反映了持续复苏还是临时的节前支出还为时过早。他们强调，消费支出的趋势将对GDP增长和劳动力市场的发展至关重要。

Inflation risks in Australia have eased, but uncertainties persist, particularly regarding global economic conditions and persistent services inflation, minutes from the Reserve Bank's December policy meeting showed. It added that monetary policy would need to remain sufficiently restrictive until members are confident that inflation is sustainably returning to the 2–3% target. Underlying inflation remains elevated at around 3-1/2%, well above the 2-1/2% midpoint of the goal. The board stressed a data-driven approach to future rate decisions, reaffirming that returning inflation to target is the top priority. On the domestic front, economic output growth was weak in Q3 2024. While recent data indicated a pick-up in consumption in October and November, it is too early to determine whether this reflects a sustained recovery or temporary pre-holiday spending. They emphasized that trends in consumer spending will be pivotal for GDP growth and labor market developments moving forward.