俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率从1月1日的115卢布兑美元大幅反弹至100卢布兑美元，这是有史以来的最低水平，不包括俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的抛售。反弹是由于财政部在其通常的预算平衡计划中推迟了外汇购买，这表明莫斯科对卢布的疲软采取了行动。此外，交易商指出，特朗普在美国担任总统可能会增加最终在乌克兰停留的可能性，这一希望得到了支持。尽管如此，该货币仍远低于战后平均水平。西方国家制裁莫斯科交易所后，卢布停止了对主要货币对的国内交易，这加大了公司获得硬通货的难度，并迫使俄罗斯银行自6月以来设定外汇价格。这增加了之前因能源制裁而停止外汇流入的制裁，最后是对油轮运营商的制裁。

The Russian ruble strengthened past 100 per USD, holding the sharp rebound from 115 per USD on January 1st, which was the lowest on record when excluding the selloff in the immediate aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The rebound was due to the Finance Ministry deferring purchases of foreign exchange in its usual budget balance scheme, indicating that Moscow took action against the ruble’s weakness. Additionally, dealers noted support from hopes that a Trump Presidency in the US could raise the possibility of an eventual stop in the was in Ukraine. Still, the currency remained much weaker than its post-war average. The ruble was halted from domestic trading against major pairs after Western nations sanctioned the Moscow Exchange, magnifying the difficulty for companies to secure hard currency and forcing the Bank of Russia to set forex prices since June. This added to previous sanctions that halted forex inflows due to sanctions on energy, lastly on oil tanker operators.

俄罗斯央行储备从之前的6095亿美元增至6097亿美元。俄罗斯央行储备从之前的6095亿美元增至6097亿美元

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $609.7B from previous $609.5B.Russia Central Bank Reserves $ increased to $609.7B from previous $609.5B

1月份，MOEX俄罗斯指数为2920，相对接近去年7月以来的最高点，保持了俄罗斯银行最新决定引发的反弹，因为对利率控制和通胀飙升的预期促使投资者涌向股市，以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。尽管预期加息幅度在22%至25%之间，但CBR在12月将关键利率保持在21%，此前有报道称CBR州长Nabiullina会见了警告不要加息的政界人士和商界领袖。这一温和举措恰逢通胀加剧的警告，最近的指标显示经济将实现两位数增长。俄罗斯石油公司、卢克石油公司和最近被制裁的苏尔古特公司从12月底的低点反弹，尽管在中国炼油率低和美国处罚导致太平洋油轮闲置后，出口前景不佳。此外，尽管乌克兰停止向欧洲输送天然气，俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司仍出现反弹。

The MOEX Russia Index was at 2,920 in January, hovering relatively close to the highest since July of last year, holding the rally triggered by the Bank of Russia’s latest decision as expectations of contained interest rates and soaring inflation drove investors to pile on equity markets to shield themselves from elevated price growth. The CBR held its key rate at 21% in December despite expectations of hikes ranging from 22% to 25%, preceding reports that CBR Governor Nabiullina met with politicians and business leaders that warned against a hike. The dovish move coincided with warnings of higher inflation, with recent gauges pointing to double-digit growth. Rosneft, Lukoil, and recently-sanctioned Surgut rebounded from their low peaks on late December despite the poor outlook for exports following low refining rates by China and idle tankers in the Pacific ocean due to US penalties. Also, Gazprom rebounded despite the halt of gas flows to Europe through Ukraine.

初步数据显示，俄罗斯联邦政府2024年的预算赤字超过3万亿卢布，这是自2020年新冠肺炎疫情以来最大的财政赤字。支出同比激增24.2%，达到40.2万亿卢布，主要原因是乌克兰战争融资的国防成本上升，以及在广泛制裁中支持当地企业的措施。与此同时，收入增长了26%，达到36.7万亿卢布，因为通货膨胀加速推动非石油和天然气收入增长26%，达到25.6万亿卢布，石油和天然气收入增长26%，至11.1万亿卢布。赤字占国内生产总值的比例从2023年的1.9%降至1.7%，但明显高于该部最初计划的0.9%赤字，即1.6万亿卢布。然而，不包括石油和天然气的关键收入，缺口从2023年的7%增加到GDP的7.3%。经过三年的俄乌战争，俄罗斯的累计预算赤字已达到10万亿卢布。

The Russian federal government posted a budget deficit of more than RUB 3 trillion in 2024, its widest fiscal gap since the Covid pandemic in 2020, according to preliminary figures. Spending surged 24.2% yoy to RUB 40.2 trillion, largely due to elevated defense costs to finance the war in Ukraine and measures to support local businesses amid broad sanctions. Meanwhile, revenues rose 26% to RUB 36.7 trillion, as accelerating inflation boosted a 26% rise in in non-oil-and-gas revenues to RUB 25.6 trillion and a 26% increase in oil and gas revenues to RUB 11.1 trillion. As a share of GDP, the deficit decreased to 1.7%, compared to 1.9% in 2023, but was significantly wider than the ministry's initial plans for a deficit of 0.9%, or RUB 1.6 trillion. Excluding crucial revenues from oil and gas, however, the shortfall increased to 7.3% of GDP from 7% in 2023. Over three years of Russian-Ukrainian war, Russia’s cumulative budget deficit has reached RUB 10 trillion.