根据最终数据，俄罗斯经济在2024年第二季度每年增长4.1%，第一季度为5.4%，但略高于市场预期的4%。经济部最近将全年GDP预测从2.8%上调至3.9%，超过了2023年3.6%的增长率。这一扩张主要是由大量的预算支出和军事工业产出的增加推动的，这反映了经济越来越依赖政府国防支出来维持乌克兰正在进行的战争。

The Russian economy expanded by 4.1% annually in Q2 2024, following a 5.4% in Q1 but slightly above market expectations of 4%, according to the final reading. The Economy Ministry recently raised its full-year GDP forecast to 3.9% from 2.8%, surpassing the 3.6% growth seen in 2023. This expansion is largely driven by substantial budgetary spending and increased military-industrial output, reflecting the economy's growing reliance on government defense expenditures to sustain the ongoing war in Ukraine.

随着交易员评估该国的经济和货币前景，俄罗斯10年期自由贸易区的收益率保持在15-16%的水平，约为两年半以来的高点。在9月份的会议上，俄罗斯央行将关键利率上调100个基点至19%，这表明10月份有可能再次加息。政策制定者还将今年的通胀预测上调至6.5%-7%，而目前的通胀率为9.1%。通货膨胀的激增主要是由政府军事开支增加造成的经济压力造成的，这推高了工资，超过了经济满足需求的能力。央行行长Elvira Nabiullina最近警告称，滞胀的风险在于持续的通货膨胀和经济增长放缓。

The yield on the Russian 10-year OFZ remained between the 15-16% level, around 2-1/2-years highs, as traders evaluate the country's economic and monetary outlook. In its September meeting, the Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate by 100 basis points to 19%, signaling the possibility of another hike in October. Policymakers also raised their inflation forecast for the year to 6.5%-7%, while inflation currently sits at 9.1%. The inflation surge is primarily driven by the economic strain from increased government military spending, which has pushed up wages and exceeded the economy’s capacity to meet demand. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina recently warned of the risk of stagflation, with persistent inflation coupled with slowing economic growth.

随着交易员评估经济和货币前景，俄罗斯卢布兑美元汇率跌破91，接近四个月来的新低。俄罗斯央行在9月份的会议上将基准利率上调100个基点至19%，并为10月份的再次加息敞开了大门。政策制定者还将俄罗斯今年的通胀预测上调至6.5%-7%。目前为9.1%。通货膨胀的飙升主要归因于政府军费开支增加带来的经济压力，这推高了工资，超过了经济供应商品和服务的能力。央行行长Elvira Nabiullina最近警告称，在该国持续通货膨胀和经济增长放缓的情况下，存在滞胀的风险。

The Russian ruble weakened beyond 91 per USD, nearing new four-month lows, as traders assess the economic and monetary outlook. The Bank of Russia raised its key interest rate by 100bps to 19% in its September meeting and left the door open for another hike in October. Policymakers also revised their inflation forecasts for Russia higher to 6.5%-7% for the year. It currently stands at 9.1%. The spike in inflation is largely attributed to the economic strain from increased government military spending, which has driven up wages and outpaced the economy’s capacity to supply goods and services. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina recently cautioned about the risk of stagflation, amid persistent inflation and slowing growth in the country.

由于高通胀，俄罗斯央行在9月份将关键利率上调100个基点至19%，预计将超过2024年预测的6.5-7.0%。需求增长快于供应，促使进一步加息以遏制通货膨胀，并在2025年前将其恢复到4.0%-4.5%的目标。8月份，价格年增长率为7.6%，通胀预期正在上升。由于供应限制和外部需求疲软，经济增长放缓，但在收入增加和高投资的推动下，消费者活动仍然强劲。劳动力市场紧张，失业率创历史新低，工资增长超过生产率。收紧的货币环境正在推高市场利率并影响贷款。通货膨胀风险正在上升，这与外贸恶化和高通胀预期有关。

The Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 100 bps to 19% in September due to high inflation, which is expected to exceed the 2024 forecast of 6.5-7.0%. Demand is growing faster than supply, prompting further rate hikes to curb inflation and return it to the 4.0-4.5% target by 2025. In August, price growth was 7.6% annualized, and inflation expectations are rising. Economic growth has slowed due to supply constraints and weaker external demand, but consumer activity remains strong, driven by rising incomes and high investment. The labor market is tight, with record-low unemployment and wage growth outpacing productivity. Tightened monetary conditions are pushing up market rates and affecting lending. Inflation risks are growing, linked to worsening foreign trade and high inflation expectations.