欧元攀升至1.05美元，为一个多月来的最高水平，在特朗普总统似乎软化了他对普遍关税的立场并主张立即降息后，美元走弱支撑了欧元。此外，欧元区和德国的快速PMI提供了一些乐观情绪，因为私营部门活动显示出复苏的迹象，制造业收缩有所缓解。与此同时，普遍预计欧洲央行将在2024年四次降息后，于下周再次下调关键存款利率25个基点。投资者还将密切关注有关央行今年计划的任何信号，市场预计未来几个月将进一步降息。

The Euro climbed toward $1.05, its highest level in over a month, supported by a weaker dollar after President Trump appeared to soften his stance on universal tariffs and advocated for an immediate drop in interest rates. Additionally, flash PMIs for the Eurozone and Germany provided some optimism, as private sector activity showed signs of recovery and the manufacturing contraction eased. Meanwhile, the ECB is widely expected to implement another 25bps cut to the key deposit rate next week, following four reductions in 2024. Investors will also closely monitor any signals regarding the central bank's plans for the year, with markets anticipating further rate cuts in the coming months.

HCOB Flash欧元区制造业采购经理人指数从12月的45.1升至2025年1月的46.1，高于45.3的预测。该数据显示，尽管产出、新业务和就业继续下降，但制造业的收缩幅度是八个月来最小的。在价格方面，制造业投入成本五个月来首次上涨。与此同时，制造业乐观情绪升至七个月高点。汉堡商业银行首席经济学家Cyrus de la Rubia博士表示：“制造业仍处于衰退之中，但衰退速度有所放缓。该行业继续迅速裁员，新订单也在下降。另一方面，公司对未来更加乐观，预计一年后产量会更高。这可能是特朗普的意外影响，也可能是由于认为在经历了近两年的衰退后已经触底。”。

The HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to 46.1 in January 2025 from 45.1 in December and above forecasts of 45.3. The reading pointed to the smallest contraction in the manufacturing sector in eight months, although output, new business and employment continued to decline. On the price front, manufacturing input costs rose for the first time in five months. Meanwhile, manufacturing optimism strengthened to a seven-month high. “The manufacturing sector is still in recession, but the pace of decline eased a bit. The sector continues to shed staff rapidly, and new orders are falling too. On the flip side, companies are much more optimistic about the future, envisioning higher output a year from now. This might be an unexpected Trump effect or due to the view that the bottom has been reached after a near two-year recession", Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said.

HCOB欧元区服务业采购经理人指数从12月的51.6微降至2025年1月的51.4，略低于市场预期的51.5。虽然服务业活动连续第二个月扩大，但增长温和，略低于12月。服务业的新业务增加，但国际需求下降。值得注意的是，劳动力数量出现了六个月来最快的增长。在成本方面，投入价格大幅飙升，创下九个月来最大涨幅。展望未来，对服务业的信心有所减弱。

The HCOB Eurozone Services PMI edged down to 51.4 in January 2025, from 51.6 in December, slightly missing market expectations of 51.5. While services activity expanded for the second consecutive month, growth was modest and slightly slower than in December. New business in the services sector rose, but international demand declined. Notably, workforce numbers saw their fastest increase in six months. On the cost front, input prices surged significantly, marking the steepest rise in nine months. Looking ahead, confidence in the services sector softened.

根据初步估计，HCOB欧元区综合采购经理人指数从上个月的49.6升至2025年1月的50.2，高于市场预期的49.7，这标志着欧元区私营部门活动自2024年8月以来的首次扩张。新的扩张仅由服务业实现（2024年12月为51.4比51.6），抵消了制造商的急剧收缩（46.1比45.1），尽管后者好于预期。从国家层面来看，德国推动了反弹，而法国的经济活动收缩有所缓和。尽管如此，由于制造业需求疲软抵消了其他行业的影响，新订单总量已连续第八个月收缩，尽管收缩速度为五个月来最慢。因此，尽管积压的工作继续减少，但人员配备水平也下降了。在价格方面，投入成本连续第四个月加速，达到近两年来的最高水平，推动产出通胀达到五个月来的最高点。

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 50.2 in January of 2025 from 49.6 in the previous month, ahead of market expectations of 49.7 to mark the first expansion in the Eurozone’s private sector activity since August 2024, according to a flash estimate. The fresh expansion was solely carried by the services sector (51.4 vs 51.6 in December 2024), offsetting a sharp contraction for manufacturers (46.1 vs 45.1), albeit the latter was better than expectations. By the national level, the rebound was carried by Germany, while the contraction in activity for France softened. Still, new orders at the aggregate level contracted for an eighth month, although at a slowest pace in five months, as poor demand in manufacturing offset other sectors. Consequently, staffing levels also fell, even though backlogs of work continued to be reduced. On the price front, input costs accelerated for the fourth month to the most in nearly two years, driving output inflation to a five-month high.