澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.28%左右，为一个月来的最低水平，因为在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布大幅提高关税后，投资者寻求避险资产，这加剧了可能损害经济增长的全球贸易战。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行周二保持利率稳定，但略微转向鸽派，取消了之前对进一步降息持谨慎态度的说法。央行承认，核心通胀正在按照预期降温，但需要相信这一趋势会持续下去。全球贸易战的风险导致交易员大幅提高了对澳大利亚储备银行今年进一步降息的预期，掉期交易意味着5月份降息25个基点的可能性约为80%。在经济新闻中，由于出口下降而进口增加，澳大利亚2月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄，这表明外部部门可能面临不利因素。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.28%, its lowest level in a month, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled massive increases in tariffs, deepening a global trade war that could hurt economic growth. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady on Tuesday but took a slight dovish turn by removing its previous reference to being cautious on further rate cuts. The central bank acknowledged that core inflation was cooling in line with expectations, but it needed to be confident the trend would continue. The risk of a global trade war has led traders to sharply increase their expectations for further rate cuts from the RBA this year, with swaps implying about an 80% chance of a 25bps reduction in May. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed significantly in February as exports declined while imports increased, signaling potential headwinds for the external sector.

澳大利亚储备银行FSR：美国关税可能对商业投资和消费者支出产生寒蝉效应。澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在周四发布的《金融稳定评论》（FSR）中警告称，美国“关税可能会对商业投资和消费者支出产生寒蝉效应”

RBA FSR: US tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.In its Financial Stability Review (FSR) published on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the US “tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.”

周四，澳元徘徊在0.63美元附近，在美国总统特朗普宣布对该国贸易伙伴实施全面的新关税制度后，澳元基本上没有受到影响。澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴内塞早些时候表示，他的政府不会以互惠关税进行报复，强调美国不是澳大利亚的主要贸易伙伴，因为澳大利亚出口到美国的商品不到5%。他还强调，与亚洲市场贸易关系多样化的持续努力将有助于支持当地企业。然而，最近的贸易数据显示，澳大利亚2月份的出口下降，而进口飙升至历史新高，这表明贸易平衡可能面临挑战。不断扩大的贸易差距引发了人们对外部需求和国内消费趋势的担忧，这可能会影响澳元和未来几个月的经济前景。

The Australian dollar hovered near $0.63 on Thursday, remaining largely unscathed after U.S. President Trump announced a sweeping new tariff regime on the country's trading partners. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stated earlier that his government would not retaliate with reciprocal tariffs, emphasizing that the U.S. is not a major trading partner for Australia, as less than 5% of Australian goods exports go to the U.S. He also highlighted that ongoing efforts to diversify trade relations with Asian markets would help support local businesses. However, recent trade data showed that Australia’s exports declined in February while imports surged to a record high, signaling potential challenges for the trade balance. The widening trade gap raises concerns about external demand and domestic consumption trends, which could influence the Australian dollar and economic outlook in the coming months.

2025年2月，澳大利亚商品出口环比下降3.6%，至423.1亿澳元的四个月低点，扭转了1月份向下修正的0.8%的增长。非货币黄金出口大幅下降21.4%，至42.1亿澳元。此外，非农村商品出口下降2.3%，至311.0亿澳元，原因是金属矿石和矿物（-2.9%）、煤炭、焦炭和煤球（-6.7%）、其他制成品（-0.2%）、金属（-0.9%）和其他非农村商品（-19.5%）的销售额下降。相反，其他矿物燃料（0.6%）和机械（4.6%）的出口增长。相比之下，农村商品的出货量增长了4.4%，达到69.5亿澳元，这得益于谷物和制剂（2.7%）、羊毛和羊皮（14.6%）、其他农村商品（-5.6%）以及肉类和肉类制剂（19.7%）的增长。相反，其他农村商品出口下降了5.6%。按原始数据计算，对新西兰最大贸易伙伴中国的出口下降了9.4%。印度（-16.9%）、日本（-6.7%）和美国（-14.2%）的出货量也有所下降。

Australia's goods exports fell 3.6% mom to a four-month low of AUD 42.31 billion in February 2025, reversing from a downwardly revised 0.8% rise in January. Exports of non-monetary gold saw a sharp 21.4% plunge to AUD 4.21 billion. Also, non-rural goods exports fell 2.3% to AUD 31.10 billion, due to lower sales of metal ores & minerals (-2.9%), coal, coke & briquettes (-6.7%), other manufactured goods (-0.2%), and metals (-0.9%), and other non-rural goods (-19.5%). Conversely, exports rose for other mineral fuels (0.6%) and machinery (4.6%). By contrast, shipments of rural goods grew by 4.4% to AUD 6.95 billion, boosted by rises in cereal grains & preparations (2.7%), wool and sheepskin (14.6%), other rural goods (-5.6%), and meat & meat preparations (19.7%). Conversely, other rural goods exports shrank 5.6%. On an original basis, exports to New Zealand's top trading partner, China, dropped by 9.4%. Shipments also fell to India (-16.9%), Japan (-6.7%), and the US (-14.2%).