澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.4%，因投资者评估了澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克的言论。布洛克在墨尔本的一次演讲中表示，现在确定美国总统特朗普的贸易战将如何影响未来几个月的利率还“为时过早”，同时淡化了5月份两次降息的预期。她补充说，贸易冲突造成的市场动荡没有2008年全球金融危机那么严重。尽管如此，市场仍完全消化了5月份降息25个基点的预期，一些人甚至倾向于降息0.5个基点。市场定价的这种鸽派倾向主要是由于美中贸易战的加剧，这给澳大利亚的出口导向型经济带来了风险，特别是考虑到中国是其最大的贸易伙伴。在经济方面，澳大利亚4月份的消费者通胀预期从3月份的3.6%上升至4.2%，反映出人们担心不断升级的贸易紧张局势可能会推高通胀率。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 4.4% as investors assessed remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock. In a speech in Melbourne, Bullock stated that it is “too early” to determine how U.S. President Trump’s trade war will impact interest rates in the coming months, while downplaying expectations of a double rate cut in May. She added that the market turmoil caused by the trade conflict is not as severe as the 2008 global financial crisis. Still, markets remain fully priced for a 25bps rate cut in May, with some even leaning toward a half-point move. This dovish tilt in market pricing was mainly due to the intensifying US-China trade war, which poses risks to Australia’s export-driven economy, particularly given China’s role as its largest trading partner. On the economic front, Australia's consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.2% in April from 3.6% in March, reflecting concerns that the escalating trade tensions could boost inflation rate.

周五，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.625美元左右，连续第三次上涨，因对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，投资者对美国资产的信心减弱，美元普遍走弱。尽管有90天的关税减免，但市场仍对特朗普总统的贸易政策可能使美国经济陷入衰退持谨慎态度。特朗普政府还证实，对中国商品的累计关税已攀升至145%，引发了人们对北京进一步报复的担忧，北京已对美国进口商品征收84%的关税。中国是澳大利亚大宗商品的主要买家，仍然是澳大利亚最大的出口市场。在国内，澳大利亚储备银行下一次降息的时机存在不确定性，因为贸易相关风险给经济前景蒙上了阴影。市场目前预计5月份将降息25个基点，全年将全面放松约120个基点。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.625 on Friday, marking its third consecutive gain, as the U.S. dollar weakened broadly amid rising concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and fading investor confidence in American assets. Despite a 90-day tariff reprieve, markets remained cautious that President Trump’s trade policies could tip the U.S. economy into recession. The Trump administration also confirmed that cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods have climbed to 145%, prompting fears of further retaliation from Beijing, which has imposed an 84% levy on U.S. imports. China, a key buyer of Australian commodities, remains Australia’s largest export market. Domestically, uncertainty surrounds the timing of the Reserve Bank of Australia's next rate cut, as trade-related risks cloud the economic outlook. Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point cut in May and around 120 basis points of total easing over the year.

尽管风险情绪上升，但澳元继续上涨。周五，澳元兑美元连续第三个交易日上涨。然而，随着白宫证实美国对中国商品的累计关税已升至145%，澳元/美元对的上涨可能会受到抑制。

Australian Dollar extends gains despite increased risk sentiment.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its gains for the third successive session against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. However, the upside of the AUD/USD pair could be restrained as the White House confirmed that the cumulative US tariffs on Chinese goods have risen to 145%.

澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克（Michele Bullock）顶住了就提前降息提供指导的压力，表示“现在确定利率的路径还为时过早”。周四，她在墨尔本举行的首席执行官女性年度晚宴上发表讲话，承认由于关税问题的不断发展，“金融市场和经济持续波动”，但她保证澳大利亚金融体系“强大，能够很好地吸收来自国外的冲击”。她强调澳大利亚储备银行将继续监测国内和全球市场，包括外汇走势和贸易伙伴的反应。尽管市场已经预计5月份可能降息50个基点，甚至呼吁在下一次董事会会议之前紧急降息，但布洛克重申，董事会的重点仍然是其双重任务：价格稳定和充分就业。她还将目前的情况与2008年进行了对比，指出现在的风险没有那么大。

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock has resisted pressure to offer guidance on early interest rate cuts, stating it's "too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates." Speaking at the Chief Executive Women's annual dinner in Melbourne Thursday, she acknowledged ongoing "financial market and economic volatility" due to unfolding tariff issues, but reassured that the Australian financial system is "strong and well placed to absorb shocks from abroad." She stressed the RBA’s continued monitoring of both domestic and global markets, including FX movements and reactions from trading partners. While markets have priced in a potential 50bps cut in May and even called for an emergency rate cut ahead of the next board meeting, Bullock reiterated that the board's focus remains on its dual mandate: price stability and full employment. She also contrasted the current situation with 2008, noting that the risks now are not of the same magnitude.