随着贸易战加剧,对全球经济放缓的担忧加剧,法国10年期OAT债券收益率跌至3.3%,为3月4日以来的最低水平。周五,中国宣布自4月10日起对所有美国商品征收34%的关税,以报复特朗普总统的最新关税措施。在欧洲,法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙敦促企业暂停对美国的投资,而欧盟委员会则表示正在准备应对措施。特朗普的新关税包括对所有进口商品征收10%的税,一些国家的税率明显更高,例如对欧盟商品征收20%的关税,对中国产品征收34%的额外关税。作为回应,市场预计欧洲央行4月份降息25个基点的可能性超过90%,存款利率预计到12月将降至1.8%,低于此前预测的1.9%和目前的2.5%。
France’s 10-year OAT bond yield tumbled to 3.3%, its lowest level since March 4th, as concerns about a slowing global economy grew amid the intensifying trade war. On Friday, China announced a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, effective April 10, in retaliation for President Trump’s latest tariff measures. In Europe, French President Emmanuel Macron urged companies to pause U.S. investments, while the European Commission indicated it is preparing countermeasures. Trump’s new tariffs include a 10% levy on all imports, with notably higher rates for some countries, such as a 20% tariff on EU goods and an additional 34% duty on Chinese products. In response, markets have priced in a greater than 90% chance of a 25bps ECB rate cut in April, with the deposit rate expected to drop to 1.8% by December, down from earlier forecasts of 1.9% and the current 2.5%.