瑞郎/港币 (CHFHKD) 加自选

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率跌至0.36%，达到2月下旬以来的最低水平，与美国同行同步。在美联储普遍预期的25个基点降息之后，交易员们仍然关注利率和经济前景。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，虽然他不排除12月降息的可能性，但他也没有承诺降息，并澄清选举结果不会影响近期的政策决定。预计特朗普的政策将刺激经济增长，但也可能助长通货膨胀，这可能会减缓美联储降息的步伐。在当地，10月份瑞士通胀率持续放缓至0.6%的三年多来低点，这增强了人们对瑞士国家银行进一步降息的预期。瑞士通胀自4月以来没有加速，10月的读数远低于瑞士央行对第四季度1%通胀的最新预测。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond fell toward 0.36%, reaching the lowest since late February, moving in tandem with US peers. Traders remained focused on the outlook for interest rates and the economy following the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while he is not ruling out a rate cut in December, he is also not committing to one, clarifying that the election results will not impact near-term policy decisions. Trump's policies are anticipated to stimulate growth, but they may also fuel inflation, which could moderate the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Locally, the continued deceleration in Switzerland's inflation rate to an over three-year low of 0.6% in October has bolstered expectations for deeper rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank. Swiss inflation hasn’t accelerated since April and October's reading was much lower than the latest SNB forecast for inflation of 1% in the fourth quarter.

由于交易员评估美国大选对全球经济和政治格局的影响，瑞士法郎兑美元汇率略高于最近三个月的低点，约为0.87。投资者仍然对特朗普新政府的政策持谨慎态度，这些政策可能会产生通胀影响。与此同时，美联储将利率下调25个基点，这是今年的第二次降息，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示对未来货币政策持谨慎态度。在国内，低于预期的CPI数据引发了人们的预期，即瑞士国家银行（SNB）可能会在12月的会议上选择更大幅度的50个基点的降息，以防止通胀降至0-2%的目标范围以下。瑞士通胀意外放缓至三年多来的最低水平，10月份降至0.6%。

The Swiss franc was slightly higher around 0.87 per USD, up from recent three-month lows, as traders assess the impact of the US elections on the global economy and political landscape. Investors remained wary of the new Trump administration's policies, which could have inflationary effects. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, its second reduction this year, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling a cautious outlook on future monetary policy. Domestically, softer-than-expected CPI data has fueled expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could opt for a larger 50 basis point rate cut at its December meeting to prevent inflation from falling below its 0-2% target range. Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level in over three years, dropping to 0.6% in October.

2024年10月，瑞士消费者信心指数从一年前的-52.5升至-37，但低于市场预期的-33。经济预期指数从2023年10月的-51.9升至-30.1，表明对未来经济状况的负面看法有所减轻。对个人财务的预期也有所好转，该指数为-33.6，而去年为-52.4。此外，对是否是购买大宗商品的好时机的评估从-41提高到-31.5，这表明消费者情绪正在逐渐转向复苏。消费者还报告称，过去的财务状况有所改善，从-64.8降至-52.8。

Switzerland's consumer confidence index improved to -37 in October 2024, up from -52.5 a year earlier, though it missed market expectations of -33. The economic expectations index rose to -30.1 from -51.9 in October 2023, indicating a less negative view on future economic conditions. Expectations for personal finances also brightened, with the index at -33.6 compared to -52.4 last year. Additionally, the assessment of whether it is a good time to make major purchases improved to -31.5 from -41, signaling a gradual shift in consumer sentiment toward recovery. Consumers also reported an improved past financial situation, moving to -52.8 from -64.8.

恒生指数周五下跌225点，跌幅1.1%，收于20728点，早盘小幅上涨，受房地产、消费者和金融股下跌的影响。随着中国准备在今天晚些时候举行媒体吹风会，结束其最高立法机构为期一周的会议，市场情绪变得谨慎。许多分析人士表示，需要更直接的财政刺激，而不是像债务互换计划这样的零碎措施。与此同时，人们越来越担心，如果唐纳德·特朗普连任美国总统，可能会征收更高的关税。预计周末将公布中国CPI和PPI数据，通缩风险持续存在。尽管如此，该指数仍公布了1.1%的周涨幅，这是五年来的首次上涨，这得益于美联储和金管局降息25个基点。鲍威尔主席还指出，美国大选不会影响短期政策。腾讯和美团分别下跌1.6%和3.5%，其他拖累股包括龙湖集团（-5.6%）、阳光保险（-5.3%）和中国海外发展（-3.4%）。

The Hang Seng lost 225 points or 1.1% to close at 20,728 on Friday after trading slightly higher in the morning, rattled by losses in property, consumers, and financials. Sentiment turned cautious as China prepared to hold a media briefing later today, concluding a weeklong session of its top legislative body. Many analysts said more direct fiscal stimulus is needed rather than piecemeal measures like debt swap programs. Meanwhile, concerns grew over the potential for higher tariffs if Donald Trump were to secure a second term as US president. Chinese CPI and PPI data are expected over the weekend, with deflation risks persisting. Still, the index posted a weekly gain of 1.1%, its first rise in five, buoyed by 25bps rate cuts from the Fed and the HKMA. Chair Powell also noted the US election would not impact near-term policy. Tencent and Meituan each slipped 1.6% and 3.5%, while other big drags included Longfor Group (-5.6%), Sunshine Insurance (-5.3%), and China Overseas Land (-3.4%).