加元/港币 (CADHKD) 加自选

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五下跌0.4%，至24759点，从历史高点回落，因投资者审查了最新的劳动力数据，以寻找加拿大银行未来货币政策举措的迹象。加拿大10月份的失业率稳定在6.5%，超出了升至6.6%的预期，这缓和了人们对最近劳动力市场疲软的担忧，突显了经济的韧性。基础广泛的下跌导致指数下跌，随着石油和黄金价格下跌，大宗商品生产商受到的打击最为严重。能源巨头森科尔、帝国石油、加拿大自然和Cenovus下跌0.7%至1.4%，而大多数主要矿业股下跌，尽管惠顿贵金属因强劲的季度业绩上涨1.1%。尽管周五有所回落，但多伦多证交所仍公布了2.1%的周涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index declined 0.4% to 24,759 on Friday, pulling back from record highs as investors reviewed the latest labor data for signs of future monetary policy moves by the Bank of Canada. Canada’s unemployment rate remained steady at 6.5% in October, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6%, which tempered concerns about recent labor market softening and highlighted the economy's resilience. Broad-based declines led the index lower, with commodity producers hit hardest as oil and gold prices fell. Energy giants Suncor, Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural, and Cenovus dropped between 0.7% and 1.4%, while most major mining stocks slipped, though Wheaton Precious Metals gained 1.1% on strong quarterly results. Despite Friday’s pullback, the TSX posted a weekly gain of 2.1%.

随着美国国债收益率下降，加拿大10年期政府债券收益率从11月6日达到的15周高点3.31%回落至3.2%左右。这一下降反映了投资者对美联储最近降息后进一步宽松的可能性的重新评估，市场预计12月再次降息的可能性接近71%。然而，加拿大收益率的下降不那么明显，因为该国的劳动力市场表现出弹性，10月份的失业率稳定在6.5%，超出了升至6.6%的预期。强劲的PMI数据进一步限制了加元的下行压力，因为市场评估了加拿大银行在降息周期的下一步行动。此外，特朗普呼吁征收关税和降低税收，预计这将推动通胀压力，限制美联储的削减空间，并对债券造成压力。

The yield on Canada’s 10-year government bond fell to around 3.2%, retreating from a 15-week high of 3.31% reached on November 6, as US Treasury yields dropped. This decline reflected investor reassessment of the likelihood of further easing after the Fed’s recent rate cut, with markets pricing in a nearly 71% chance of another reduction in December. However, the decline in Canadian yields was less pronounced, as the country’s labor market showed resilience, with October’s unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%, defying expectations of an increase to 6.6%. Robust PMI data further limited downward pressure on the loonie, as markets assessed the Bank of Canada’s next steps in its rate-cutting cycle. Additionally, Trump’s call for tariffs and lower taxes, which are expected to drive inflationary pressures, limited cutting room for the Fed and pressured bonds.

标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数周五下跌0.4%，至24770点以下，从历史高点回落，因为投资者评估了最新的劳动力市场数据，以寻找加拿大银行未来放松货币政策的线索。2024年10月，加拿大失业率稳定在6.5%，超出了升至6.6%的预期，缓解了人们对最近劳动力市场放缓的担忧，并显示了经济对早些时候下降的弹性，这减轻了中国银行延长降息周期的压力。当天出现了广泛的下跌，由于石油和黄金价格下跌，大宗商品生产商处于指数底部。能源巨头森科尔、帝国石油、加拿大天然气和Cenovus均下跌0.7%至1.1%。主要矿业股也面临压力，尽管由于季度表现强劲，Wheaton Precious避免了下跌。多伦多证交所有望实现超过2%的稳健周涨幅。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 0.4% to below the 24,770 mark on Friday, easing from record highs as investors assessed the latest labor market data for clues on future monetary policy easing by the Bank of Canada. Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5% in October 2024, defying expectations of a rise to 6.6%, easing concerns about the recent labor market slowdown and showing the economy’s resilience against earlier declines, which reduced pressure on the BoC to extend its rate-cutting cycle. The day saw broad-based declines, with commodity producers at the bottom of the index as oil and gold prices dropped. Energy giants Suncor, Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural, and Cenovus all fell between 0.7% and 1.1%. Key mining stocks were also under pressure, though Wheaton Precious avoided the decline thanks to a strong quarterly performance. The TSX was on track for a solid weekly advance of over 2%.

随着美元走强，加元兑美元汇率跌至1.39，接近11月1日达到的两年低点1.4，这反映了市场转向更高的关税和当选总统特朗普在竞选期间倡导的扩张性财政政策。这一转变提高了人们对美联储更激进加息的预期。对于北美货币而言，美国关税上调的前景加剧了人们对加拿大出口需求减少的担忧，而加拿大主要出口产品石油价格下跌则加剧了这一担忧。尽管如此，加拿大的劳动力市场显示出弹性，10月份的失业率保持在6.5%，与上升到6.6%的预测背道而驰。除了强劲的采购经理人指数（PMI）数据外，加元面临的下行压力有限，因为市场正在权衡加拿大央行在降息周期的下一步举措。

The Canadian dollar weakened to 1.39 per USD, nearing the two-year low of 1.4 reached on November 1st, as the U.S. dollar strengthened, reflecting market shifts toward higher tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies championed by President-elect Trump during his campaign. This shift has raised expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. For North American currencies, the prospect of increased U.S. tariffs heightened concerns about reduced demand for Canadian exports, compounded by lower prices for Canada’s main export, oil. Nevertheless, Canada’s labor market showed resilience, with October’s unemployment rate holding at 6.5%, defying predictions of a rise to 6.6%. Alongside robust PMI data, this limited downward pressure on the loonie as markets weighed the Bank of Canada’s next moves in its rate-cutting cycle.