瑞郎/南非兰特 (CHFZAR) 加自选

JSE指数周五收盘下跌约1%，收于85125点，继昨日上涨后，主要受资源相关行业的压力。石化公司沙索领跌，跌幅超过6%，与国际市场原油暴跌一致。贵金属矿商也面临着巨大压力。奢侈品零售商历峰集团在报告上半年利润暴跌后，股价下跌约5%。另一方面，总部位于开普敦的零售巨头the Foschini Group表现最佳，上涨5%，尽管销售疲软，但毛利润略有增长。与此同时，投资者消化了美联储的最新政策决定，并继续评估特朗普新政府政策对全球经济的潜在影响。本周，JSE下跌约1.2%。

The JSE index finished about 1% lower at 85,125 on Friday, following yesterday's gains, mainly pressured by resource-linked sectors. Petrochemical company Sasol led the losses, down over 6%, in line with the plunge in crude oil in international markets. Precious metals miners also faced strong pressure. Luxury retailer Richemont lost about 5% after reporting a slump in profit in the first half of the year. On the flip side, Cape Town-based retail giant The Foschini Group was the top performer, gaining 5%, after posting a modest increase in gross profit despite weak sales. Meanwhile, investors digested the latest Fed policy decision and continued to evaluate the potential impact of the new Trump administration's policies on the global economy. For the week, the JSE shed about 1.2%.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为17.5，从11月7日的一个月高点17.3回落，受到美元走强和贵金属价格下跌的压力。与此同时，交易员继续评估美国总统选举结果对全球经济的影响。与此同时，美联储将利率下调了25个基点，这是2024年的第二次降息，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，未来的决定将取决于经济数据，包括12月再次降息或暂停的可能性。在当地，南非储备银行预计将在11月的会议上再次降息，此前年通胀率三年多来首次降至4%以下，9月份达到3.8%，低于南非储备银行目标区间的首选中点4.5%。

The South African rand traded around 17.5 per USD, retreating from a one-month high of 17.3 on November 7th, pressured by a stronger dollar and a drop in precious metal prices. Meanwhile, traders continued to gauge the impact of the U.S. presidential election outcome on the global economy. In the meantime, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 bps, its second cut of 2024, with Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that future decisions will depend on economic data, including the potential for another rate cut or a pause in December. Locally, South Africa's Reserve Bank is expected to deliver another rate cut at its November meeting after the annual inflation rate dropped below 4% for the first time in over three years, reaching 3.8% in September and below the preferred 4.5% midpoint of the SARB's target range.

10年期瑞士政府债券收益率跌至0.36%，达到2月下旬以来的最低水平，与美国同行同步。在美联储普遍预期的25个基点降息之后，交易员们仍然关注利率和经济前景。主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调，虽然他不排除12月降息的可能性，但他也没有承诺降息，并澄清选举结果不会影响近期的政策决定。预计特朗普的政策将刺激经济增长，但也可能助长通货膨胀，这可能会减缓美联储降息的步伐。在当地，10月份瑞士通胀率持续放缓至0.6%的三年多来低点，这增强了人们对瑞士国家银行进一步降息的预期。瑞士通胀自4月以来没有加速，10月的读数远低于瑞士央行对第四季度1%通胀的最新预测。

The yield on the 10-year Swiss government bond fell toward 0.36%, reaching the lowest since late February, moving in tandem with US peers. Traders remained focused on the outlook for interest rates and the economy following the Federal Reserve's widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut. Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that while he is not ruling out a rate cut in December, he is also not committing to one, clarifying that the election results will not impact near-term policy decisions. Trump's policies are anticipated to stimulate growth, but they may also fuel inflation, which could moderate the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts. Locally, the continued deceleration in Switzerland's inflation rate to an over three-year low of 0.6% in October has bolstered expectations for deeper rate cuts by the Swiss National Bank. Swiss inflation hasn’t accelerated since April and October's reading was much lower than the latest SNB forecast for inflation of 1% in the fourth quarter.

由于交易员评估美国大选对全球经济和政治格局的影响，瑞士法郎兑美元汇率略高于最近三个月的低点，约为0.87。投资者仍然对特朗普新政府的政策持谨慎态度，这些政策可能会产生通胀影响。与此同时，美联储将利率下调25个基点，这是今年的第二次降息，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示对未来货币政策持谨慎态度。在国内，低于预期的CPI数据引发了人们的预期，即瑞士国家银行（SNB）可能会在12月的会议上选择更大幅度的50个基点的降息，以防止通胀降至0-2%的目标范围以下。瑞士通胀意外放缓至三年多来的最低水平，10月份降至0.6%。

The Swiss franc was slightly higher around 0.87 per USD, up from recent three-month lows, as traders assess the impact of the US elections on the global economy and political landscape. Investors remained wary of the new Trump administration's policies, which could have inflationary effects. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, its second reduction this year, with Chair Jerome Powell signaling a cautious outlook on future monetary policy. Domestically, softer-than-expected CPI data has fueled expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could opt for a larger 50 basis point rate cut at its December meeting to prevent inflation from falling below its 0-2% target range. Swiss inflation unexpectedly slowed to its lowest level in over three years, dropping to 0.6% in October.