英镑/澳元 (GBPAUD) 加自选

澳元在特朗普暂停关税后走高，但这能持续下去吗？。特朗普对关税立场的让步昨日得到了积极回应，风险交易因此受益。也就是说，他加强了对中国的言论，这仍然是市场在此期间需要关注的一个关键问题。

The aussie rides higher on Trump's tariffs pause but can it last?.Trump relenting on his position on tariffs was received positively yesterday and risk trades benefited as a result. That said, he stepped up the rhetoric against China and that is a still a key issue that markets need to be watching out for in the meantime.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率跌至4.30%左右，扭转了前一交易日的涨势，因为人们对澳大利亚储备银行采取更宽松立场的期望越来越高。这是在美中紧张局势升级之际发生的，这对澳大利亚依赖出口的经济构成了风险，尤其是中国是其最大的出口市场。特朗普总统将中国进口商品的关税提高到125%，立即生效，就在几小时前，中国将美国商品的关税上调到84%。再加上最近的数据显示商业和消费者信心低迷，反映出对经济疲软和全球不确定性日益增加的担忧，这加剧了人们对澳大利亚储备银行更加宽松的猜测。掉期现在完全反映了澳大利亚储备银行5月份降息25个基点的情况，一些人猜测降息幅度会更大，达到50个基点。预计今年将总共放松120个基点，相当于大约五次降息。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.30%, reversing gains from the previous session as expectations grew for a more accommodative stance from the RBA. This comes amid escalating US-China tensions, which pose risks to Australia’s export-dependent economy, especially with China being its largest export market. President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, effective immediately, just hours after China increased duties on US goods to 84%. This, coupled with recent data showing subdued business and consumer confidence, reflecting concerns over economic weakness and growing global uncertainty, has bolstered speculation of a more lenient RBA. Swaps now fully price in a quarter-point rate cut from the RBA in May, with some speculating a larger 50 basis point reduction. A total easing of 120 basis points, equivalent to about five rate cuts, is expected over the course of this year.

周四，澳元在上一交易日飙升超过3%后，保持在0.61美元以上，这得益于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将大多数美国贸易伙伴的进口新关税降至10%，为期90天，以便进行贸易谈判后，风险资产大幅反弹。此举大大降低了主要经济体的现有征税水平，尽管澳大利亚仍需缴纳10%的基准关税。与此同时，特朗普将中国进口商品的关税提高到125%，以回应北京的报复措施——鉴于中国是澳大利亚最大的出口市场，这一发展给澳大利亚的经济前景蒙上了阴影。在国内，围绕澳大利亚储备银行政策路径的不确定性仍在继续。分析师对下一次降息的时机存在分歧，与贸易有关的风险严重影响了经济前景。市场目前预计5月份将降息25个基点，全年将全面放松约120个基点。

The Australian dollar held above $0.61 on Thursday after surging more than 3% in the previous session, underpinned by a massive rally in risk assets after US President Donald Trump dropped new tariff rates on imports from most US trade partners to 10% for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations. The move significantly reduced existing levy levels on major economies, although Australia remains subject to the baseline 10% tariff. Meanwhile, Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% in response to Beijing’s retaliatory measures—a development that clouded the economic outlook for Australia, given China is its largest export market. Domestically, uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path continues. Analysts are divided on the timing of the next interest rate cut, with trade-related risks weighing heavily on the economic outlook. Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point cut in May and about 120 basis points of total easing over the course of the year.

中国CPI数据公布后，澳元依然疲软。周四，澳元（AUD）兑美元（USD）小幅下跌，收复了前一交易日超过3%的涨幅。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将中国进口商品的关税提高到125%，加剧了与中国的贸易紧张局势后，澳元/美元走软，这引发了人们对澳大利亚与中国密切贸易关系的担忧。

Australian Dollar remains subdued following China's CPI data.The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing some of its over 3% gain from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair weakened after US President Donald Trump escalated trade tensions with China by raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, prompting concern due to Australia's close trade ties with China.