新西兰元周二升至0.557美元左右，此前特朗普总统表示，如果其他国家做出让步，新西兰元将对“公平交易”持开放态度，随后新西兰元近期大幅下跌。然而，看跌前景依然存在，因为他也拒绝暂停关税，并威胁要进一步增加中国进口。这对新西兰的出口导向型经济构成了重大风险，特别是因为其最大的贸易伙伴中国已经对几乎所有商品征收高额关税，总关税达到54%。与此同时，国内注意力转向新西兰储备银行周三的政策决定，普遍预期的25个基点的降息可能会使官方现金利率降至3.5%。此举是在通胀缓解、经济增长放缓和劳动力市场疲软迹象出现之际做出的。还有人猜测，全球贸易紧张局势升级可能导致进一步降息50个基点，预计2025年将进一步放宽高达100个基点。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.557 on Tuesday, following recent sharp declines after President Trump signaled openness to “fair deals” if other countries make concessions. However, a bearish outlook persisted as he also refused to pause tariffs and threatened further increases on Chinese imports. This poses a significant risk to New Zealand’s export-driven economy, particularly since China, its largest trading partner, is already facing steep tariffs on nearly all goods, with total duties reaching 54%. Meanwhile, domestic attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision on Wednesday, with a widely expected 25bps cut likely to bring the official cash rate down to 3.5%. The move comes amid easing inflation, slowing economic growth, and emerging signs of labor market weakness. There is also speculation that escalating global trade tensions could lead to a deeper 50 bps cut, with expectations of up to 100 bps of further easing in 2025.