澳大利亚储备银行的商品价格指数在2025年1月同比下跌11.9%，而2024年12月的跌幅为10.4%。这标志着大宗商品价格连续第23个月下跌，也是自4月以来的最大跌幅，受铁矿石和食用煤价格下跌的拖累。以澳元计算，该指数下降了8.2%。按月度计算，2025年1月大宗商品价格上涨0.1%，低于2024年12月向下修正的0.5%的涨幅。贱金属和非农村分项指数的上涨被农村分项指数下降部分抵消。以澳元计算，该指数在1月份上涨了1.1%。

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Index of Commodity Prices slumped 11.9% year-on-year in January 2025, from a downwardly revised 10.4% drop in December 2024. This marked the 23rd consecutive month of falling commodity prices and the sharpest since April, dragged down by lower iron ore and cooking coal prices. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 8.2%. On a monthly basis, commodity prices rose 0.1% in January 2025, slowing from a downwardly revised 0.5% increase in December 2024. Gains in base metals and non-rural sub-indices were partially offset by decline in rural sub-index. In Australian dollar terms, the index rose 1.1% in January.

澳元/日元价格预测：奖金降至数月低点；95.20区域附近仍然脆弱。澳元/日元交叉盘在新的一周开始时吸引了大量抛售，并在亚洲时段跌至2024年9月以来的最低水平，在94.70-94.65附近。然而，现货价格减少了部分日内损失，目前交易在95.20附近，当天仍下跌1.20%。

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Bonces off multi-month low; remains vulnerable near 95.20 area.The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy selling at the start of a new week and dives to its lowest level since September 2024, around the 94.70-94.65 region during the Asian session. Spot prices, however, trim a part of intraday losses and currently trade near the 95.20 area, still down 1.20% for the day.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.42%左右，此前疲软的国内数据为澳大利亚储备银行近期降息提供了进一步空间。12月零售额环比下降0.1%，这是9个月来的首次下降，而墨尔本研究所的月度通胀指标在1月仅上涨0.1%，与12月0.6%的12个月高点相比大幅放缓，是自9月以来的最小涨幅。这一点，再加上上周令人惊讶的疲软的消费者通胀数据，进一步证明了本月降息的必要性，市场预计澳大利亚储备银行将把4.35%的现金利率下调25个基点的可能性约为95%。与此同时，由于贸易战的威胁抑制了风险情绪，全球市场感到不安。此前，特朗普总统下令对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税，该命令将于周二生效，促使受影响国家立即作出报复誓言。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to around 4.42% after weak domestic data provided further leeway for a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Retail sales fell by 0.1% month-on-month in December, marking the first decline in nine months, while the Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge rose by just 0.1% in January, sharply slowing from December’s 12-month high of 0.6% and representing the smallest gain since September. This, combined with a surprisingly weak consumer inflation print last week, added further evidence supporting a rate cut this month, with markets pricing in around a 95% chance the RBA will reduce its 4.35% cash rate by 25 bps. Meanwhile, global markets were rattled as the threat of a trade war dampened risk sentiment. This followed President Trump’s order to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, set to take effect on Tuesday, prompting immediate retaliatory vows from the affected countries.

澳元下跌约2%，至0.61美元以下，达到2020年4月以来的最低水平，因为美国新的关税引发了人们对全球贸易战可能性的担忧，引发了风险资产的抛售。美国对来自墨西哥和加拿大的商品征收25%的关税，对来自中国的进口商品征收10%的关税，促使受影响国家采取报复措施。虽然澳大利亚没有直接成为美国新关税的目标，但严重依赖出口和自由贸易的澳大利亚经济仍然容易受到全球贸易中断的影响。与此同时，数据显示，12月澳大利亚零售额下降0.1%，为9个月来首次下降。这一放缓进一步支持了对澳大利亚储备银行鸽派立场的预期，许多分析师预测，降息最早可能在本月开始。这些数据是在通胀急剧放缓之后公布的，这加强了人们对澳大利亚储备银行将采取行动放松货币政策的押注。

The Australian dollar dropped around 2% to below $0.61, reaching its lowest levels since April 2020, as new US tariffs raised concerns about the potential for a global trade war, triggering a selloff in risk assets. The US imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada and a 10% levy on imports from China, prompting retaliatory measures from the affected countries. While Australia was not directly targeted by the new US tariffs, its economy, which is heavily reliant on exports and free trade, remains vulnerable to global trade disruptions. Meanwhile, data showed a 0.1% decline in Australian retail sales for December, marking the first drop in nine months. This slowdown further supported expectations of a dovish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia, with many analysts predicting rate cuts could begin as early as this month. The figures followed a sharp slowdown in inflation, reinforcing bets that the RBA will take action to ease monetary policy.