在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对加拿大进口商品征收25%的关税后，加元兑美元汇率跌破1.47，达到2003年4月以来的最低水平。旨在解决非法移民和毒品贸易的关税将产生重大影响，尽管加拿大的能源出口将面临10%的关税减免。美国还对来自墨西哥的商品征收25%的关税，对中国征收10%的关税，引发了受影响国家的报复措施。这些关税对与大宗商品挂钩的加元构成重大威胁，可能会损害对加拿大出口的需求，并限制外汇流入。与此同时，加拿大12月的国内生产总值预计将增长0.2%，2024年的年增长率为1.4%，符合加拿大银行的预期。中国银行最近将关键利率下调25个基点至3.0%，结束了量化紧缩计划，并宣布计划在3月份恢复资产购买。

The Canadian dollar fell past 1.47 per US dollar, reaching its weakest level since April 2003, following the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports by US President Donald Trump. The tariffs, aimed at addressing illegal immigration and the drug trade, will have a significant impact, although energy exports from Canada will face a reduced 10% tariff. The US also imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and 10% tariffs on China, triggering retaliatory measures from the affected countries. These tariffs pose a significant threat to the commodity-linked loonie by potentially hurting demand for Canadian exports and limiting foreign exchange inflows. Meanwhile, Canada’s GDP is expected to have grown by 0.2% in December, translating to an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2024, in line with Bank of Canada expectations. The BoC recently cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0%, concluding its quantitative tightening program and announcing plans to resume asset purchases in March.

美元兑加元上涨至近22年来的高点1.48。在过去的4周里，美元加元上涨了2.89%，在过去的12个月里，它上涨了8.93%。

USDCAD increased to a near 22-year high of 1.48. Over the past 4 weeks, US Dollar Canadian Dollar gained 2.89%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 8.93%.

美加贸易冲击正在发挥作用：首次经济收获。加拿大遭受了近100年来最大的贸易冲击。RBC Economics现在发现，在进行清晰分析的愿望与认识到贸易政策的演变以及政策制定者对这些政策的反应仍然高度不确定之间取得了平衡。

A U.S.-Canada Trade Shock Now in Play: First Economic Takeaways.Canada has been hit with its largest trade shock in nearly 100 years. RBC Economics now finds itself balancing the desire to produce a clear analysis with the recognition that the evolution of trade policies, and policymakers' responses to them, still remains highly uncertain.

加拿大劳动力市场在关税威胁迫在眉睫之前仍在逐渐疲软。加拿大劳动力市场在1月份可能继续表现不佳，因为它一直表现出比美国就业市场更明显的恶化。

Canada's Labour Market Still Gradually Softening Ahead of Looming Tariff Threat.Canada's labour market likely continued to underperform in January as it has consistently shown a more pronounced deterioration than the U.S. job market.