欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——周五美元再次走软。周五，美元继续面临很大的抛售压力，因为市场继续惩罚美元，认为美国即将陷入衰退，这将迫使美联储降息。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Softens Again on Friday.The US dollar continues to see a lot of selling pressure on Friday, as the markets continue to punish the greenback on the idea that there is a recession coming to the United States, which will force the Fed to cut rates.

周五，标准普尔/澳交所200指数下跌0.82%，收于7647点，在华尔街隔夜恢复抛售后，收跌了前一交易日的涨幅。经济衰退发生之际，白宫证实，美国对中国商品的累计关税已攀升至145%，加剧了世界两大经济体之间的贸易僵局。尽管大多数国家延长了90天的宽限期，但投资者仍对美国贸易政策对全球经济增长的更广泛影响持谨慎态度。金融类股领跌，麦格理集团（-1.3%）、澳新银行集团（-1.9%）、澳大利亚国民银行（-1.8%）和西太平洋银行（-2.1%）均大幅下跌。资源股也因大宗商品价格下跌而走弱，包括必和必拓集团（-2.2%）、伍德赛德能源（-2.4%）和桑托斯（-1.1%）。相比之下，随着金价创下历史新高，黄金矿商反弹，北方之星资源和进化矿业分别飙升4.9%和7.1%。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index dropped 0.82% to close at 7,647 on Friday, trimming gains from the previous session after Wall Street resumed its selloff overnight. The downturn came as the White House confirmed that cumulative U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods have climbed to 145%, escalating the trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies. Despite a 90-day reprieve extended to most countries, investors remain cautious about the broader impact of U.S. trade policy on global economic growth. Financial stocks led losses, with notable declines in Macquarie Group (-1.3%), ANZ Group (-1.9%), NAB (-1.8%), and Westpac (-2.1%). Resource shares also weakened on falling commodity prices, including BHP Group (-2.2%), Woodside Energy (-2.4%), and Santos (-1.1%). In contrast, gold miners rallied as bullion prices hit fresh record highs, with Northern Star Resources and Evolution Mining surging 4.9% and 7.1%, respectively.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.4%，因投资者评估了澳大利亚储备银行行长米歇尔·布洛克的言论。布洛克在墨尔本的一次演讲中表示，现在确定美国总统特朗普的贸易战将如何影响未来几个月的利率还“为时过早”，同时淡化了5月份两次降息的预期。她补充说，贸易冲突造成的市场动荡没有2008年全球金融危机那么严重。尽管如此，市场仍完全消化了5月份降息25个基点的预期，一些人甚至倾向于降息0.5个基点。市场定价的这种鸽派倾向主要是由于美中贸易战的加剧，这给澳大利亚的出口导向型经济带来了风险，特别是考虑到中国是其最大的贸易伙伴。在经济方面，澳大利亚4月份的消费者通胀预期从3月份的3.6%上升至4.2%，反映出人们担心不断升级的贸易紧张局势可能会推高通胀率。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose toward 4.4% as investors assessed remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock. In a speech in Melbourne, Bullock stated that it is “too early” to determine how U.S. President Trump’s trade war will impact interest rates in the coming months, while downplaying expectations of a double rate cut in May. She added that the market turmoil caused by the trade conflict is not as severe as the 2008 global financial crisis. Still, markets remain fully priced for a 25bps rate cut in May, with some even leaning toward a half-point move. This dovish tilt in market pricing was mainly due to the intensifying US-China trade war, which poses risks to Australia’s export-driven economy, particularly given China’s role as its largest trading partner. On the economic front, Australia's consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.2% in April from 3.6% in March, reflecting concerns that the escalating trade tensions could boost inflation rate.

周五，澳元兑美元汇率升至0.625美元左右，连续第三次上涨，因对美国经济前景的担忧加剧，投资者对美国资产的信心减弱，美元普遍走弱。尽管有90天的关税减免，但市场仍对特朗普总统的贸易政策可能使美国经济陷入衰退持谨慎态度。特朗普政府还证实，对中国商品的累计关税已攀升至145%，引发了人们对北京进一步报复的担忧，北京已对美国进口商品征收84%的关税。中国是澳大利亚大宗商品的主要买家，仍然是澳大利亚最大的出口市场。在国内，澳大利亚储备银行下一次降息的时机存在不确定性，因为贸易相关风险给经济前景蒙上了阴影。市场目前预计5月份将降息25个基点，全年将全面放松约120个基点。

The Australian dollar rose to around $0.625 on Friday, marking its third consecutive gain, as the U.S. dollar weakened broadly amid rising concerns over the U.S. economic outlook and fading investor confidence in American assets. Despite a 90-day tariff reprieve, markets remained cautious that President Trump’s trade policies could tip the U.S. economy into recession. The Trump administration also confirmed that cumulative tariffs on Chinese goods have climbed to 145%, prompting fears of further retaliation from Beijing, which has imposed an 84% levy on U.S. imports. China, a key buyer of Australian commodities, remains Australia’s largest export market. Domestically, uncertainty surrounds the timing of the Reserve Bank of Australia's next rate cut, as trade-related risks cloud the economic outlook. Markets are currently pricing in a 25-basis point cut in May and around 120 basis points of total easing over the year.