下周，交易员将密切关注特朗普总统的政策公告、央行的关键决策以及大型企业的收益。预计美联储将维持联邦基金利率，而欧洲央行和中国银行预计将再降息25个基点。此外，巴西和瑞典央行将宣布各自的货币政策决定。本周还发布了大量经济数据。亮点包括美国、欧元区、德国、法国、意大利和西班牙的GDP增长数据；美国个人消费支出数据；以及德国、法国和西班牙的初步通胀数据。澳大利亚还将公布其季度CPI。在中国，市场将从周二开始关闭，以庆祝农历新年。然而，官方PMI数据仍将公布。在企业盈利方面，科技巨头微软、Meta、特斯拉和苹果将公布其季度业绩。

Next week, traders will keep a close eye on President Trump's policy announcements, key central bank decisions, and corporate earnings from megacaps. The Fed is expected to maintain the federal funds rate, while both the ECB and the BoC are anticipated to deliver another 25bps cut in borrowing costs. Additionally, the central banks of Brazil and Sweden will announce their respective monetary policy decisions. The week is also rich in economic data releases. Highlights include GDP growth figures for the US, the Eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain; US PCE data; and preliminary inflation readings for Germany, France, and Spain. Australia will also release its quarterly CPI. In China, markets will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year celebrations. However, official PMI data will still be released. On the corporate earnings front, tech megacaps Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, and Apple are set to report their quarterly results.

美元加速下跌与指数增长。美元兑主要货币加速下跌，本周下跌近2%，至107.1，随后有所回落。从根本上说，美元回调的背后是人们对美联储将在今年晚些时候降息一两次的预期再次抬头。

Dollar's Accelerated Decline and Indices' Growth.The US dollar accelerated its decline against its major peers, losing almost 2% to 107.1 this week before trimming some losses. Fundamentally, behind the dollar's corrective pullback is the resurgence of expectations that the Fed will cut its key rate once or twice later this year.

周五，美国股市小幅波动，保持了本周的涨幅，因为市场评估了最新收益和美国总统特朗普的政策变化信号。标准普尔500指数持平，保持在接近历史高点的水平，纳斯达克指数小幅上涨，道琼斯指数下跌50点，但本周三个平均指数上涨了2%。特朗普指出，他的政府不愿对中国征税，以限制制造商投入通胀上升的风险。总统也没有对欧盟施加限制，但重申了早些时候对墨西哥和加拿大征收关税的警告。与此同时，美国运通在本财年创纪录的收入后小幅上涨。此外，Verizon在收益超过预期后上涨了3%以上，而投资者评估了飙升的5G投资的潜在回报。在数据方面，标普指数显示1月份服务业活动增长疲软，但制造业活动意外反弹。

US stocks traded with small movements on Friday, holding the gains from the week as markets assessed the latest earnings and the signals of policy changes from US President Trump. The S&P 500 was flat to hold above near record highs, while the Nasdaq inched higher and the Dow eased 50 points, but the three averages gained 2% on the week. Trump noted that his administration would rather not impose levies on China, limiting risks of higher input inflation for manufacturers. The President also held back from imposing restrictions on the EU but reiterated the earlier warning of tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, American Express inched higher after posting record-setting revenue for the financial year. Also, Verizon jumped over 3% after its earnings topped expectations, while investors assessed potential returns on soaring 5G investments. On the data front, flash S&P aggregates pointed softer services activity growth in January, but manufacturing activity unexpectedly rebounded.

根据最终数据，密歇根大学编制的美国未来一年的通胀预期在2025年1月被证实为3.3%的八个月高点，高于12月的2.8%。与此同时，1月份五年期展望升至3.2%，略低于早些时候的3.3%，但高于12月份的3%。

The year-ahead inflation expectations in the United States, as compiled by the University of Michigan, were confirmed at an eight-month high of 3.3% in January 2025, up from 2.8% in December, according to final figures. In the meantime, the five-year outlook rose to 3.2% in January, down slightly from the earlier reading of 3.3% but above December's 3%.