欧元下跌超过1%，至1.024美元，接近2022年11月以来的最低水平，因为美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的新贸易关税引发了欧洲的担忧。特朗普决定对墨西哥和加拿大进口商品征收25%的关税，并对中国商品征收10%的关税，这打压了市场情绪。他还威胁要对欧盟征收关税，理由是美国对欧洲的贸易逆差，他称之为“暴行”。虽然加拿大进行了报复，墨西哥可能也会效仿，但欧盟发誓要坚决回应美国的任何关税。这种不确定性，再加上欧洲央行的温和立场和进一步降息的可能性，增加了欧元的下行压力。上周，欧洲央行如预期般将利率下调了25个基点。与此同时，最新数据显示，1月份欧元区通胀率微升至2.5%，为2024年7月以来的最高水平，高于市场预期的2.4%。核心通胀率稳定在2.7%，低于2.6%的预期。

The euro weakened more than 1% to $1.024, nearing its lowest level since November 2022, as US President Donald Trump's new trade tariffs sparked concerns in Europe. Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports, along with a 10% levy on Chinese goods, weighed on market sentiment. He also threatened tariffs on the EU, citing the US trade deficit with Europe, which he called an "atrocity." While Canada retaliated and Mexico may follow, the EU vowed to respond firmly to any US tariffs. This uncertainty, combined with the European Central Bank's dovish stance and the possibility of further rate cuts, added downward pressure on the euro. Last week, the ECB lowered interest rates by 25bps as expected. Meanwhile, the latest data showed inflation rate in the Euro Area edged up to 2.5% in January, the highest since July 2024 and above market expectations of 2.4%. The core inflation rate was steady at 2.7%, against expectations of a slowdown o 2.6%.

初步估计显示，欧元区的年通货膨胀率从12月的2.4%微升至2025年1月的2.5%，略高于市场预期的2.4%。这是自2024年7月以来的最高通胀率，主要是由于能源成本急剧上升（1.8%对12月的0.1%）。与此同时，非能源工业品的通货膨胀率稳定在0.5%，而服务业（3.9%对4.0%）和食品、酒精和烟草（2.3%对2.6%）的价格增长放缓。核心通胀率（不包括波动的食品和能源价格）连续第五个月保持2.7%不变，略高于市场预测的2.6%，但仍处于2022年初以来的最低水平。

The annual inflation rate in the Euro Area edged up to 2.5% in January 2025 from 2.4% in December, slightly above market expectations of 2.4%, a preliminary estimate showed. It was the highest inflation rate since July 2024, driven primarily by a sharp acceleration in energy costs (1.8% vs 0.1% in December). Meanwhile, inflation for non-energy industrial goods remained steady at 0.5%, while price increases slowed for both services (3.9% vs 4.0%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.3% vs 2.6%). The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 2.7% for the fifth consecutive month, slightly above market forecasts of 2.6% but still at its lowest level since early 2022.

HCOB欧元区制造业采购经理人指数在2025年1月上调至46.6，高于初步估计的46.1，高于12月的45.1。尽管该指数仍处于收缩区间，但它标志着制造业活动自2024年5月以来最慢的下降。产出和新订单均以5月以来的最低速度下降，而就业水平继续下降，裁员速度略有加快。在价格方面，投入成本自去年8月以来首次上涨，但产出费用保持不变，因为企业选择不将更高的成本转嫁给客户。展望未来，商业信心增强，增长预期达到2022年2月以来的最高水平。

The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI was revised up to 46.6 in January 2025, beating the preliminary estimate of 46.1 and improving from 45.1 in December. While the index remained in contractionary territory, it signaled the slowest decline in manufacturing activity since May 2024. Both output and new orders fell at their weakest pace since May, while employment levels continued to decline, with job shedding accelerating slightly. On the price front, input costs rose for the first time since last August, but output charges remained unchanged as businesses opted not to pass higher costs onto customers. Looking ahead, business sentiment strengthened, with growth expectations reaching their highest level since February 2022.

周一，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对墨西哥、加拿大和中国征收关税，并威胁将其扩大到欧盟和英国后，欧洲市场大幅下跌。斯托克50指数下跌超过2%，斯托克600指数下跌近1.5%。特朗普对墨西哥和加拿大进口商品征收25%的关税，对中国商品征收10%的关税，将于周二生效，这引发了人们的担忧，尤其是在加拿大进行报复、墨西哥威胁要效仿的情况下。此外，特朗普批评了欧盟的贸易行为，称美国的赤字是“暴行”，并确认对欧盟商品征收关税迫在眉睫。欧盟誓言做出坚定回应。汽车和零部件受到重创，跌幅超过4%，为2022年9月以来最大单日跌幅。大众汽车下跌6%，保时捷下跌4.5%，戴姆勒卡车下跌5.5%，梅赛德斯-奔驰下跌4.3%，宝马下跌4.5%。在主要公司中，LVMH下跌2.3%，SAP下跌1.8%，爱马仕下跌2%，ASML控股下跌3%。

European markets fell sharply Monday after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, with threats to extend them to the EU and UK. The Stoxx 50 dropped over 2%, and the Stoxx 600 declined nearly 1.5%. Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports and 10% on Chinese goods, set to take effect Tuesday, sparked concerns, especially as Canada retaliated and Mexico threatened to follow. Also, Trump criticized the EU’s trade practices, calling the US deficit an “atrocity” and confirming tariffs on EU goods were imminent. The EU vowed a firm response. Autos and parts were hit hard, down over 4%—their worst one-day drop since September 2022. Volkswagen fell 6%, Porsche 4.5%, Daimler Truck 5.5%, Mercedes-Benz 4.3%, and BMW 4.5%. Among major companies, LVMH dropped 2.3%, SAP 1.8%, Hermès 2%, and ASML Holding 3%.