法国10年期OAT收益率降至3.15%，为12月26日以来的最低水平，因为美国总统特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税后，市场紧张情绪加剧，加剧了人们对进一步经济紧张的担忧。特朗普还警告说，对欧洲征收关税是不可避免的，尽管他没有提供时间表，这给欧洲大陆本已脆弱的增长增加了压力。与此同时，最近的经济数据增强了人们对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期。最新的消费者价格指数报告显示，受能源成本上涨的推动，1月份欧元区通胀率上升至2.5%，但仍在预期轨迹内。此外，受法国和德国经济收缩的压力，欧元区第四季度GDP意外停滞。上个月，欧洲央行如预期般降息25个基点，市场预计今年将再降息75个基点。

The yield on France’s 10-year OAT fell to 3.15%, its lowest level since December 26, as market jitters intensified after US President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, fueling fears of further economic strain. Trump also warned that tariffs on Europe were inevitable, though he provided no timeline, adding pressure to the continent’s already fragile growth. Meanwhile, recent economic data has strengthened expectations for further ECB rate cuts. The latest CPI report showed that Eurozone inflation rose to 2.5% in January, driven by higher energy costs, but remained within the expected trajectory. Additionally, Eurozone GDP unexpectedly stalled in Q4, pressured by contractions in both France and Germany. Last month, the ECB lowered rates by 25 basis points as expected, and markets anticipate an additional 75 basis points of cuts over the course of the year.

HCOB法国制造业采购经理人指数在2025年1月为45，略低于最初估计的45.3，但高于12月的41.9。该数据表明，尽管工业衰退有所缓解，但法国制造业仍处于衰退状态，生产和新订单下降速度较慢。新业务以6月以来最疲软的速度下降，出口订单创下四个月来最低跌幅。与此同时，随着企业专注于削减成本措施，就业人数继续下降，库存和采购活动减少。尽管需求疲软，但随着枯竭速度的放缓，企业仍能清理积压。价格压力也有所缓解，投入成本小幅上升，企业继续根据竞争和客户需求打折。展望未来，制造商普遍对前景持悲观态度，称政治担忧和其他行业的挑战是逆风。

The HCOB France Manufacturing PMI came in at 45 in January 2025, slightly lower than initial estimates of 45.3, but up from 41.9 in December. The reading indicated that French manufacturing remained in recession, although the industrial downturn eased, with production and new orders declining at a slower pace. New business fell at the softest rate since June, and export orders posted the weakest drop in four months. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, and stocks and purchasing activity decreased as firms focused on cost-cutting measures. Despite weaker demand, firms were able to clear backlogs, with the pace of depletion easing. Price pressures also eased, with input costs rising modestly, and firms continued to discount prices in response to competition and client demands. Looking ahead, manufacturers were generally pessimistic about the outlook, citing political concerns and challenges in other sectors as headwinds.

CAC 40指数周一暴跌1.6%，至7824点，追随特朗普总统对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税后的全球抛售，同时也暗示欧盟和英国可能是下一个。上周末，特朗普兑现了他的承诺，对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品征收25%的关税，同时对中国商品征收10%的关税，该关税将于周二生效。与此同时，欧盟誓言要做出坚定回应。在国内，法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁寻求利用特殊的宪法权力在周一通过2025年预算，这一大胆举措可能会在不到一年的时间里推翻法国的第三届政府。大多数股票都面临压力，Stellantis NV领跌，暴跌5.9%。意法半导体紧随其后，下跌4.5%，Teleperformance下跌3.8%，开云集团下跌3.7%。另一方面，家乐福和Orange是唯一上涨的公司，分别上涨0.3%和0.1%。

The CAC 40 plunged 1.6% to 7,824 on Monday, tracking a global selloff after President Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, while also hinting that the EU and UK could be next. Over the weekend, Trump followed through on his pledge, implementing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, alongside a 10% levy on Chinese goods, set to take effect on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the EU vowed a firm response. Domestically, French Prime Minister François Bayrou seeks to use special constitutional powers to pass the 2025 budget on Monday, a bold move that could potentially bring down France’s third government in less than a year. Most stocks were under pressure, with Stellantis NV leading the laggards, plunging 5.9%. STMicroelectronics followed, sliding 4.5%, while Teleperformance dropped 3.8% and Kering fell 3.7%. On the other hand, Carrefour and Orange were the sole gainers, edging up 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

在巴黎，CAC 40指数下跌了131点。Stellantis NV（-5.99%）、Teleperformance SE（-3.82%）和意法半导体（-3.71%）领跌。

In Paris, the CAC 40 Index is losing 131 points. Losses were led by Stellantis NV (-5.99%), Teleperformance SE (-3.82%) and STMicroelectronics (-3.71%).