新加坡元/瑞郎 (SGDCHF) 加自选

2024年12月，新加坡制造业产量同比增长10.6%，超过了市场预期的6.4%的增长，尽管与上个月修订后的10.8%的增长相比略有放缓。精密工程的产量继续增长（11月为3.9%对2.3%），而生物医学制造业（9.4%对-23.9%）、化学品（3.1%对-1.1%）、运输工程（16%对-0.3%）和一般制造业（3.7%对-2.8%）的产量强劲反弹。与此同时，电子产品的产量增长速度较慢（14.3%对31.3%）。经季节性调整的月度数据显示，12月制造业产出下降0.7%，低于市场预测的1.2%的跌幅，但扭转了11月修正后的1.7%的涨幅。2024年全年的产量比2023年高出4.3%。

Singapore’s manufacturing production rose by 10.6% year-on-year in December 2024, exceeding market expectations of a 6.4% growth, although it moderated slightly from a revised 10.8% increase in the previous month. Production continued to expand for precision engineering (3.9% vs 2.3% in November), while rebounding strongly for biomedical manufacturing (9.4% vs -23.9%), chemicals (3.1% vs -1.1%), transport engineering (16% vs -0.3%), and general manufacturing industries (3.7% vs -2.8%). Meanwhile, output for electronics grew at a slower pace (14.3% vs 31.3%). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, manufacturing output decreased by 0.7% in December, less than market forecasts of a 1.2% drop but reversing a revised 1.7% gain in November. For the full year of 2024, output was 4.3% higher compared to 2023.

2024年第四季度，新加坡私人住宅价格环比上涨2.3%，与最初的预测相符，并从第三季度0.7%的下跌中反弹。这是自2023年第三季度以来的最快增长，得益于年底的销售热潮。非土地房产价格稳步加速（第三季度为3.0%对0.1%），核心中部地区/CCR（2.6%对-1.1%）、中部其他地区/RCR（3.0%对0.8%）和中部以外地区/OCR（3.3%对持平）的价格均有所上涨。此外，有地房产价格的跌幅大幅放缓（-0.1%对-3.4%）。2024年全年，该市的私人住宅价格增长速度较慢，为3.9%，而2023年和2022年的涨幅分别为6.8%和8.6%。近年来，新加坡实施了多项措施来控制房地产价格。值得注意的是，大多数外国买家的印花税翻了一番，达到60%。

Private home prices in Singapore rose by 2.3% qoq in Q4 of 2024, matching the initial forecast and bouncing back from a 0.7% fall in Q3. This was the fastest increase since Q3 of 2023, boosted by a rush of sales during the year-end. There was a solid acceleration in prices of non-landed properties (3.0% vs 0.1% in Q3), with rises in the Core Central Region/CCR (2.6% vs -1.1%), the Rest of Central Region/RCR (3.0% vs 0.8%), and Outside Central Region/OCR (3.3% vs flat reading). In addition, a decline in landed property prices softened sharply (-0.1% vs -3.4%). For the full year of 2024, private home prices in the city increased at a slower pace of 3.9%, compared to a rise of 6.8% in 2023 and 8.6% in 2022. Singapore has implemented several measures over recent years to control property prices. Notably, the stamp duty for most foreign buyers was doubled to 60%.

新加坡金融管理局（MAS）于2025年1月放松了货币政策，这是自2020年以来的首次此类举措，因为核心通胀下降速度快于预期，而且随着全球贸易政策的不利因素加剧，人们担心国内经济放缓。央行表示，将略微降低新加坡元名义有效汇率（S$NEER）政策区间的斜率，其宽度或中心水平不变。第四季度，城市经济的核心通胀率从之前的2.7%降至1.9%。预计2025年的平均数字将为1.0-2.0%，低于10月份估计的1.5-2.5%。与此同时，2025年的整体通胀率可能达到1.5%-2.5%，而2024年为2.4%。关于国内生产总值，预计2025年的增长率约为1%-3%，2024年不到4%，2025年的产出水平接近潜力。新加坡金融管理局在一份声明中表示：“全球贸易政策转变的影响可能会对制造业和与贸易相关的服务业造成压力。”。

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) loosened its monetary policy in January 2025, its first such move since 2020 amid a faster-than-expected fall in core inflation and concerns about domestic economic slowdown as headwinds from global trade policy heighten. The central bank said it will slightly reduce the slope of the SGD nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band, with no changes to its width or the level at which it is centered. Core inflation in the city economy fell to 1.9% yoy in Q4 from the prior 2.7%. Figures are expected to average 1.0–2.0% in 2025, lower than October's estimates of 1.5–2.5%. Meantime, headline inflation may reach between 1.5%–2.5% in 2025, compared to 2.4% in 2024. Regarding the GDP, growth is projected at around 1%-3% in 2025, less than 4% in 2024, with output levels keeping close to potential for 2025. "The impact of shifts in global trade policies could weigh on manufacturing and trade-related services sectors," MAS said in a statement.

2024年12月，新加坡核心消费者价格同比上涨1.8%，较上月1.9%的涨幅有所回落，但高于1.7%的市场预测。这标志着自2021年11月以来的最低核心通胀率，原因是服务业通胀有所缓和。随着假期支出下降和公共交通成本增长放缓，服务业通胀放缓（1.8%对11月的2.2%）。按月计算，核心通胀率在11月持平后上升了0.5%。2024年全年，核心通胀率平均为2.7%，低于2023年的4.2%。与2024年相比，由于服务业通胀呈缓和趋势，预计2025年核心通胀率将下降。与此同时，随着名义工资增长放缓和生产率提高，单位劳动力成本预计将逐渐上升。

Core consumer prices in Singapore increased 1.8% year-on-year in December 2024, easing from a 1.9% rise in the previous month but above market forecasts of a 1.7% gain. This marked the lowest core inflation rate since November 2021, due to a moderation in services inflation. Services inflation slowed (1.8% vs. 2.2% in November) as holiday expenses fell and public transport costs rose at a slower pace. On a monthly basis, core inflation increased by 0.5% after being flat in November. For 2024 as a whole, core inflation averaged 2.7%, easing from 4.2% in 2023. Core inflation is projected to step down in 2025 compared to 2024 due to services inflation, which has been on an easing trend. Meanwhile, unit labor costs are projected to rise more gradually, alongside moderating nominal wage growth and improving productivity.