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欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——关税公告后美元受到打击。周四凌晨，由于市场继续出现大幅波动，美元受到了相当大的打击。周三的关税公告引起了世界各国领导人的反应，外汇市场仍有很多噪音。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Gets Hit After Tariff Announcement.The US dollar has been hit rather hard in the early hours of Thursday, as the markets continue to see a lot of volatility. The tariff announcement on Wednesday has leaders around the world reacting, and there is a lot of noise in the FX markets still.

南非兰特兑美元汇率约为18.8，徘徊在三个月低点附近，因为该货币面临着美国贸易关税和国内政治紧张局势的压力。新的“互惠关税”对所有美国进口商品征收10%的基准关税，对包括南非在内的几个国家征收更高的关税，南非现在面临30%的关税。在南非，尽管强烈反对有争议的增值税（VAT）上调，但经过数周的政治争论和激烈辩论，2025年国家预算最终于4月2日获得了较小联盟伙伴和其他政治团体的支持。执政联盟中的第二大政党民主联盟投票反对这项措施，引发了人们对非洲人国民大会去年失去议会多数席位后成立的联合政府稳定性的担忧。

The South African rand traded around 18.8 per USD, hovering near three-month lows, as the currency faced pressure from both US trade tariffs and domestic political tensions. The new "reciprocal tariffs" impose a 10% baseline on all US imports, with higher duties on several countries, including South Africa, which now faces a 30% rate. In South Africa, the 2025 national budget was finally approved on April 2, securing backing from smaller coalition partners and other political groups after weeks of political wrangling and heated debate, despite strong opposition to a controversial increase in value-added tax (VAT). The Democratic Alliance, the second-largest party in the ruling coalition, voted against the measure, raising concerns about the stability of the unity government formed after the African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority last year.

标准普尔南非全球采购经理人指数从上个月的49.0降至2025年3月的48.3。这标志着连续第四个月出现收缩，因为需求持续疲软，在经济和政治不确定性的情况下，产量和新订单进一步下降。新业务出现了一年来第二快的下降，尽管出口订单在非洲需求强劲的支持下出现了七个月来的首次增长。此外，尽管裁员幅度不大，但公司已连续第三个月裁员。采购活动和库存也有所下降。在定价方面，受兰特走强和服务业成本增长放缓的推动，投入价格通胀降至五个月低点。经济放缓使公司自2024年10月以来首次降低了销售价格。展望未来，商业信心小幅下降，但与长期趋势保持一致，因为企业仍然保持谨慎，但对未来更强劲的需求、更低的通胀和增加的投资抱有希望。

The S&P Global South Africa PMI fell to 48.3 in March 2025 from 49.0 in the previous month. This marked the fourth straight month of contraction as weak demand persisted, driving further declines in output and new orders amid economic and political uncertainty. New business saw its second-fastest drop in a year, though export orders rose for the first time in seven months, supported by stronger African demand. Additionally, firms cut jobs for a third month, though layoffs were marginal. Purchasing activity and inventories also declined. On the pricing front, input price inflation eased to a five-month low, helped by a stronger rand and slower service-sector cost increases. The slowdown allowed firms to cut selling prices for the first time since October 2024. Looking ahead, business confidence edged lower but aligned with long-term trends, as firms remained cautious yet hopeful for stronger demand, lower inflation, and increased investment ahead.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.28%左右，为一个月来的最低水平，因为在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布大幅提高关税后，投资者寻求避险资产，这加剧了可能损害经济增长的全球贸易战。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行周二保持利率稳定，但略微转向鸽派，取消了之前对进一步降息持谨慎态度的说法。央行承认，核心通胀正在按照预期降温，但需要相信这一趋势会持续下去。全球贸易战的风险导致交易员大幅提高了对澳大利亚储备银行今年进一步降息的预期，掉期交易意味着5月份降息25个基点的可能性约为80%。在经济新闻中，由于出口下降而进口增加，澳大利亚2月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄，这表明外部部门可能面临不利因素。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.28%, its lowest level in a month, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled massive increases in tariffs, deepening a global trade war that could hurt economic growth. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady on Tuesday but took a slight dovish turn by removing its previous reference to being cautious on further rate cuts. The central bank acknowledged that core inflation was cooling in line with expectations, but it needed to be confident the trend would continue. The risk of a global trade war has led traders to sharply increase their expectations for further rate cuts from the RBA this year, with swaps implying about an 80% chance of a 25bps reduction in May. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed significantly in February as exports declined while imports increased, signaling potential headwinds for the external sector.