新西兰储备银行4月货币政策评估更新。我们继续看到新西兰储备银行明天将OCR下调25个基点至3.5%。但围绕前景的风险已经增加，特别是由于全球前景黯淡。

RBNZ April Monetary Policy Review Update.We continue to see the RBNZ cutting the OCR 25bp to 3.5% tomorrow. But the risks around the outlook have increased, especially due to the darkening global outlook.

新西兰元周二升至0.557美元左右，此前特朗普总统表示，如果其他国家做出让步，新西兰元将对“公平交易”持开放态度，随后新西兰元近期大幅下跌。然而，看跌前景依然存在，因为他也拒绝暂停关税，并威胁要进一步增加中国进口。这对新西兰的出口导向型经济构成了重大风险，特别是因为其最大的贸易伙伴中国已经对几乎所有商品征收高额关税，总关税达到54%。与此同时，国内注意力转向新西兰储备银行周三的政策决定，普遍预期的25个基点的降息可能会使官方现金利率降至3.5%。此举是在通胀缓解、经济增长放缓和劳动力市场疲软迹象出现之际做出的。还有人猜测，全球贸易紧张局势升级可能导致进一步降息50个基点，预计2025年将进一步放宽高达100个基点。

The New Zealand dollar rose to around $0.557 on Tuesday, following recent sharp declines after President Trump signaled openness to “fair deals” if other countries make concessions. However, a bearish outlook persisted as he also refused to pause tariffs and threatened further increases on Chinese imports. This poses a significant risk to New Zealand’s export-driven economy, particularly since China, its largest trading partner, is already facing steep tariffs on nearly all goods, with total duties reaching 54%. Meanwhile, domestic attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy decision on Wednesday, with a widely expected 25bps cut likely to bring the official cash rate down to 3.5%. The move comes amid easing inflation, slowing economic growth, and emerging signs of labor market weakness. There is also speculation that escalating global trade tensions could lead to a deeper 50 bps cut, with expectations of up to 100 bps of further easing in 2025.

新西兰股市几乎没有变化，周二上午的交易中约为11782点，此前一个交易日出现了五年多来的最大单日跌幅。周一，由于持续的关税紧张局势，华尔街再次出现动荡，美国期货大幅反弹，提振了市场情绪。在国内，新西兰储备银行将于本周举行货币政策会议，对降息25个基点的乐观情绪日益高涨。随着通货膨胀进一步缓解，市场也预计今年晚些时候将再降息两次。在主要贸易伙伴中国，政策制定者表示，随着北京方面寻求加快刺激措施以提振消费，有可能在今年的适当时候降低借贷成本和存款准备金率。Seeka Ltd（2.1%）和Vector有限公司（1.8%）上涨，Napier Port Hlds下跌。（-3.6%）和新西兰南港（-3.2%）。 金融、能源矿产和商业服务的上涨帮助抵消了生产者制造业、消费部门和医疗保健的损失。

Shares in New Zealand were little changed, trading around 11,782 in Tuesday morning deals, following their biggest daily drop in over five years in the previous session. Sentiment was lifted by a sharp rebound in U.S. futures, after another volatile session on Wall Street Monday amid ongoing tariff tensions. At home, the RBNZ is set to hold a monetary policy meeting this week, with growing optimism of a 25bps rate cut. Markets are also pricing in two additional reductions later this year as inflation eases further. In key trading partner China, policymakers signaled the possibility of cutting borrowing costs and the RRR at an appropriate time this year, as Beijing seeks to accelerate stimulus measures to boost consumption. Seeka Ltd 2.1%) and Vector Ltd. (1.8%) gained amid declines from Napier Port Hlds. (-3.6%) and South Port NZ (-3.2%). Gains in financials, energy minerals, and commercial services helped offset losses in producer manufacturing, consumer sectors, and healthcare.

新西兰NZIER商业信心（2025年第一季度）19%（之前为16%）。新西兰经济研究所自1961年以来一直在进行商业意见季度调查。这是新西兰持续时间最长的商业意见调查。

New Zealand NZIER Business Confidence (Q1 2025) 19% (vs. prior 16%).The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has conducted its Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion since 1961. It is New Zealand's longest-running business opinion survey.