塞尔维亚BELEX15指数 (BELEX15) 加自选

塞尔维亚央行在2024年12月的会议上将关键利率维持在5.75%，突显了6月和9月早些时候总计75个基点的降息的持续影响。政策制定者指出，尽管通胀已回到目标区间，预计将保持稳定，但审慎的货币政策立场是必要的。这种方法反映了全球环境中持续存在的不确定性，主要是由地缘政治紧张局势及其对宏观经济稳定的潜在影响所驱动的。塞尔维亚11月的通货膨胀率为4.3%，连续第七个月保持在央行3±1.5%的目标范围内。

The central bank of Serbia maintained its key interest rate at 5.75% during its December 2024 meeting, highlighting the continued impact of earlier rate cuts totaling 75bps in June and September. Policymakers noted that while inflation has returned to the target range and is expected to remain stable, a prudent monetary policy stance is necessary. This approach reflects the persistent uncertainty in the global environment, driven largely by geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on macroeconomic stability. Inflation in Serbia was at 4.3% in November, remaining within the central bank target of 3 ± 1.5% for a seventh straight month.

2024年11月，塞尔维亚的年通货膨胀率从上个月的五个月高点4.5%降至4.3%。住房和公用事业（10月份为3.2%对6.3%）、酒精饮料、烟草和麻醉品（7.7%对8.8%）、服装和鞋类（4.3%对4.5%）、健康（5.9%对6.3%”）以及杂项商品和服务（3.7%对3.8%）的价格有所放缓。相比之下，食品和非酒精饮料（4.6%对4.4%）、家具、家用设备和日常家居维护（6.2%对5.2%）以及通信（3.4%对3%）的成本加快。此外，运输价格反弹（0.4%对-1.5%）。按月计算，11月消费者价格指数从上月的0.6%降至0.3%。

The annual inflation rate in Serbia edged lower to 4.3% in November 2024, from a five-month high of 4.5% in the previous month. Prices moderated for housing and utilities (3.2% vs 6.3% in October), alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics (7.7% vs 8.8%), clothing and footwear (4.3% vs 4.5%), health (5.9% vs 6.3%), and miscellaneous goods and services (3.7% vs 3.8%). In contrast, costs accelerated for food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.6% vs 4.4%), furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (6.2% vs 5.2%), and communication (3.4% vs 3%). Additionally, prices rebounded for transport (0.4% vs -1.5%). On a monthly basis, consumer prices ticked lower to 0.3% in November from 0.6% in the previous month.

继上个月上涨0.5%之后，塞尔维亚的生产者价格指数在2024年11月同比上涨0.7%。这标志着生产者价格通胀连续第二个月出现，因为制造业价格反弹（0.3%对10月份的-1%），采矿和采石成本下降速度较慢（-0.3%对-4.3%）。与此同时，供水成本上升；污水处理、废物管理和补救活动（9.3%对8.4%）。与此同时，电力、天然气、蒸汽和空调供应的价格增长放缓（1.1%对5.6%）。按月计算，11月生产者价格指数上涨0.2%，较10月0.8%的涨幅有所放缓。

Producer prices in Serbia increased 0.7% year-on-year in November 2024, following a 0.5% rise in the previous month. This marked the second consecutive month of producer price inflation, as prices rebounded for manufacturing (0.3% vs -1% in October) and costs dropped at a slower pace for mining & quarrying (-0.3% vs -4.3%). At the same time, costs went up for water supply; sewerage, waste management & remediation activities (9.3% vs 8.4%). Meanwhile, price growth slowed for electricity, gas, steam and air condition supply (1.1% vs 5.6%). On a monthly basis, producer prices rose 0.2% in November, slowing from a 0.8% advance in October.

2024年第三季度，塞尔维亚经济较去年同期增长3.1%，与初步估计相符，此前三个月上调了4.2%。这标志着自2023年第二季度以来最慢的扩张，因为家庭消费（3.9%对第二季度的4.7%）和政府支出（2.6%对4.6%）都有所放缓，而固定投资有所回升（9.1%对7.8%）。与此同时，净外部需求对GDP产生了负面影响，因为出口（第二季度为3.2%对4.6%）的增长远低于进口（14.4%对8.4%）。经季节性调整的季度数据显示，塞尔维亚第三季度国内生产总值在上一季度增长0.9%后，增长了0.5%。

Serbia’s economy advanced by 3.1% over a year ago in the third quarter of 2024, matching the preliminary estimate and following an upwardly revised 4.2% rise in the previous three-month period. This marked the slowest expansion since Q2 2023, as both household consumption (3.9% vs 4.7% in Q2) and government spending (2.6% vs 4.6%) slowed down, while fixed investment picked up (9.1% vs 7.8%). At the same time, net external demand contributed negatively to the GDP, as exports (3.2% vs 4.6% in Q2) rose much less than imports (14.4% vs 8.4%). On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, the Serbian GDP increased by 0.5% in Q3, after a 0.9% rise in the previous period.