尼日利亚全股指数 (NSEAllShare) 加自选

2024年10月，Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI从上月的49.8降至46.9。最新数据显示，该国私营部门连续第四个月出现收缩，这是自2023年3月以来的最大跌幅。新订单和产出都显著下降，主要是由于货币疲软以及燃料和运输成本上升导致本已强劲的通胀压力加剧。事实上，总体投入成本以有史以来最快的速度增长，促使销售价格相应上涨。采购活动也降至2023年3月以来的最低水平。因此，投入品库存连续第三个月下降。更积极的是，公司继续增加员工数量，连续第六个月增加了就业人数，尽管幅度不大。最后，商业信心是自2014年1月调查开始以来的最低水平。

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI fell to 46.9 in October 2024, down from 49.8 in the prior month. The latest reading pointed to the fourth consecutive month of contraction in the country's private sector, marking the most significant decline since March 2023. Both new orders and output declined markedly, primarily due to the intensification of already strong inflationary pressures, driven by currency weakness and rising costs for fuel and transportation. In fact, overall input costs increased at one of the sharpest rates on record, prompting a corresponding rise in selling prices. Purchasing activity was also reduced to its lowest level since March 2023. Consequently, input stocks declined for the third consecutive month. More positively, companies continued to increase their staffing levels, raising employment for the sixth month running, albeit modestly. Finally, business sentiment was the lowest since the survey began in January 2014.

2024年9月，尼日利亚的整体通胀率从上个月的32.2%加快至32.7%，这是三个月来的首次增长。促成因素包括奈拉贬值和自9月初以来燃料价格上涨后运输价格上涨（27.2%对25.7%）。此外，由于最近粮食产区发生严重洪水的影响，9月份占尼日利亚通胀篮子大部分的食品通胀率从8月份的37.5%上升到37.8%。与此同时，9月份核心通胀率（不包括波动较大的农产品和能源价格）为27.4%，略低于上月的27.6%。在上个月上涨2.2%之后，每月消费者价格飙升2.5%，为六个月来最大涨幅。

Nigeria’s headline inflation rate quickened to 32.7% in September 2024, up from 32.2% in the prior month, marking the first increase in three months. Contributing factors include the depreciation of the naira and the increase in transportation prices (27.2% vs 25.7%) following hikes in fuel prices since early September. Additionally, food inflation, which accounts for the bulk of Nigeria's inflation basket rose to 37.8% in September, up from 37.5% in August, amid the impact of recent severe floods in food-producing areas. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural products and energy stood at 27.4% in September, down slightly from 27.6% in the prior month. Monthly, consumer prices surged by 2.5%, the most in six months, after a 2.2% rise in the previous month.

2024年9月，Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI为49.8，与8月份的49.9相比变化不大，这表明商业状况连续第三个月进一步小幅恶化。调查对象强调了通货膨胀环境下具有挑战性的需求状况。新订单连续第二个月增加；然而，增长率仍然疲软，不足以阻止商业活动的进一步下滑。就业人数连续第五个月增加，但仅略有增加，因为一些公司限制了招聘以降低成本。与此同时，企业在9月份仍不愿持有库存，连续第二个月削减采购库存，这是自2020年5月以来的最大幅度。在价格方面，投入成本上升至有记录以来的第三位，而产出价格则加快至六个月来的最快水平。最后，9月份商业信心下降，为历史第二低。

The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI was little changed at 49.8 in September 2024, compared to August's 49.9, pointing to a further fractional deterioration in business conditions, which occurred for the third consecutive month. Survey respondents highlighted challenging demand conditions amid the inflationary environment. New orders increased for the second consecutive month; however, the growth rate remained muted and insufficient to prevent a further decline in business activity. Employment increased for the fifth month running, but only marginally as some firms limited hiring to reduce costs. Meanwhile, companies remained reluctant to hold inventories in September, cutting stocks of purchases for the second month running and to the largest extent since May 2020. On the price front, input costs increased to their third steepest on record while output prices quickened to their fastest level in six months. Lastly, business confidence fell in September and was the second-lowest on record.

2024年9月24日，尼日利亚央行一致决定将基准利率进一步上调50个基点，达到27.25%的历史新高，这是今年连续第五次加息。该决定旨在遏制通货膨胀，支持奈拉和吸引投资。行长Olayemi Cardoso强调，多次加息有助于缓和通胀，并重申该行致力于控制通胀。政策制定者观察到，8月份价格涨幅连续第二个月放缓，达到32.2%的年增长率。然而，该国粮食生产地区发生的毁灭性洪水带来了新的压力，可能导致价格上涨。

The Central Bank of Nigeria unanimously decided to further increase its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to a new record high of 27.25% on September 24th, 2024, marking the fifth consecutive hike this year. The decision aimed at quelling inflation, supporting the naira and attracting investments. Governor Olayemi Cardoso emphasized that multiple rate hikes have helped to moderate inflation and reiterated the bank's commitment to bring inflation under control. Policymakers observed that price increases slowed for the second consecutive month in August, reaching an annual rate of 32.2%. However, new pressures arising from devastating floods in the country’s food-producing regions have emerged, potentially contributing to rising prices.