摩洛哥CFG25指数 (CasablancaCFG25) 加自选

2024年11月，摩洛哥的年通货膨胀率上升至0.8%，而10月份的五个月低点为0.7%。上涨压力主要来自食品和非酒精饮料的价格（10月份为0.7%对0.3%）；住房和公用事业（3.6%，与10月持平）和餐馆和酒店（3.5%对3.6%）；酒精饮料和烟草（2.5%，与10月份持平）。按月计算，11月消费者价格指数在上个月下降0.3%后，下降了0.2%。

The annual inflation rate in Morocco ticked up to 0.8% in November 2024, compared with October's five-month low of 0.7%. Upward pressure came mostly from prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages (0.7% vs 0.3% in October); housing & utilities (3.6%, the same pace as in October) and restaurants & hotels (3.5% vs 3.6%); alcoholic beverages & tobacco (2.5%, the same pace as in October). On a monthly basis, consumer prices fell by 0.2% in November, after a 0.3% decrease in the previous month.

摩洛哥国家银行在2024年12月的会议上将基准利率下调25个基点至2.50%，而9月份的基准利率保持在2.75%不变。这一决定使借贷成本降至2022年11月以来的最低水平，因为通货膨胀仍符合价格稳定目标，并考虑到中期前景的高度不确定性，特别是在国际层面。央行指出，通货膨胀率一直很低，预计年底平均为1%，低于2023年的6.1%，预计中期将保持温和，2025年为2.4%，2026年为1.8%。 由于长期干旱，预计今年经济将增长2.5%，低于2023年的3.4%，然后在未来两年加速至3.9%。

The National Bank of Morocco slashed its benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 2.50% in its December 2024 meeting, after leaving it unchanged at 2.75% in September. The decision brings borrowing costs to their lowest level since November 2022, given that inflation remains in line with the price stability target and considering the high uncertainty surrounding the medium-term outlook, particularly at the international level. The central bank noted that inflation has remained low and is expected to end the year at an average of 1%, down from 6.1% in 2023, and is projected to remain moderate in the medium term, at 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026. The economy is projected to grow by 2.5% this year, down from 3.4% in 2023, due to a prolonged drought, before accelerating to 3.9% over the next two years.

2024年第三季度，摩洛哥的制造业产量同比增长9.2%，高于上一季度的5.8%。这标志着制造业产出连续第五个季度增长，也是自2021年第二季度以来的最快增速，这得益于化学工业（18.2%）、汽车（17.0%）、不包括机械设备的金属制品（3.0%）、服装（11.8%）、烟草制品（10.2%）、食品（9.0%）和其他非金属矿产品（5.3%）的强劲产出。相反，木材和软木制品的产量大幅下降，不包括家具（-32.3%）和皮革和鞋类（-11.6%）。

Manufacturing production in Morocco expanded by 9.2% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, accelerating from a 5.8% gain in the previous quarter. This marked the fifth consecutive quarter of growth in manufacturing output and the fastest pace since the second quarter of 2021, boosted by strong output in the chemical industry (18.2%), cars (17.0%), metal products excluding machinery and equipment (3.0%), clothing (11.8%), tobacco products (10.2%), food (9.0%), and other non-metallic mineral products (5.3%). Conversely, production slumped for articles of wood and cork, excluding furniture (-32.3%), and leather and footwear (-11.6%).

2024年第三季度，摩洛哥的失业率从去年同期的13.5%上升到13.6%，失业人数增加了5.8万人，达到168.3万人。与此同时，就业人数增加21.4万，达到1066.6万人，劳动力增加27.1万，达到1234.9万人。15-24岁年龄组的失业率特别高，为39.5%，毕业生为19.8%，女性为20.8%。在活动中，农业部门失去了12.4万个工作岗位，而服务业（+25.8万个）、建筑业（+5.7万个）和制造业（+2.3万个）增加了更多的工作岗位。

The unemployment rate in Morocco rose to 13.6% in the third quarter of 2024, from 13.5% in the same period a year earlier, as the number of unemployed increased by 58 thousand to 1.683 million. Meanwhile, the number of employed rose by 214 thousand to 10.666 million and the workforce increased by 271 thousand to 12.349 million. The unemployment rate was notably high among age group 15-24 at 39.5% and it stood at 19.8% among graduates and 20.8% among women. Among activities, the agricultural sector lost 124 thousand jobs, while more jobs were added to the services sector (+258 thousand), construction (+57 thousand) and manufacturing (+23 thousand).