澳元/纽币 (AUDNZD) 加自选

新西兰基准标准普尔/NZX 50指数周四上涨0.15%，收于12339点，抹去了早些时候的跌幅。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布全面征收新关税后，该指数在早盘大幅下跌，新西兰是面临10%基准征税的国家之一。与此同时，新西兰贸易部长Todd McClay表示，新西兰不会进行报复，因为这样做可能会提高消费者成本并加剧通胀压力。市场领导者斐雪派克在最初下跌后回升0.3%，当时该公司表示，由于美国新的关税，26财年的成本可能会增加。涨幅较大的公司包括陶朗加港（2.3%）、Ebos Group（1.7%）、Contact Energy（1.3%）、Mercury NZ（1.05%）和奥克兰国际机场（0.95%），为市场反弹做出了贡献。

New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index rose 0.15% to close at 12,339 on Thursday, wiping out earlier losses. The index had fallen sharply earlier in the session after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, with New Zealand among the nations facing a baseline 10% levy. Meanwhile, Trade Minister Todd McClay said New Zealand would not retaliate, as doing so could raise consumer costs and contribute to inflationary pressures. Market leader Fisher & Paykel recovered 0.3% after initially dropping when the company said that costs would likely increase for FY26 due to the new U.S. tariffs. Notable gainers included Port of Tauranga (2.3%), Ebos Group (1.7%), Contact Energy (1.3%), Mercury NZ (1.05%), and Auckland Intl Airport (0.95%), contributing to the market rebound.

周四，尽管新西兰受到唐纳德·特朗普总统10%的基准进口关税的打击，但新西兰元仍保持近期上涨至0.573美元左右。随着特朗普全面的新关税加剧了贸易紧张局势，并引发了人们对经济增长放缓的担忧，美元也从下跌中受益。然而，在受影响的国家中，中国面临着几乎所有中国产品有史以来最大的关税上调，使关税总额达到54%。鉴于新西兰经济严重依赖对中国的出口，这可能会给新西兰元带来巨大的下行压力。在国内，由于新西兰储备银行的温和前景，该货币也面临着额外的下行压力，央行建议在年底前至少降息两次。

The New Zealand dollar held its recent advance to around $0.573 on Thursday, despite New Zealand being hit by President Donald Trump’s 10% baseline import tariff. The currency also benefited from a declining U.S. dollar as Trump’s sweeping new tariffs heightened trade tensions and stoked concerns about slowing economic growth. However, among the affected nations, China faced the biggest-ever tariff hike on nearly all Chinese products, bringing total levies to 54%. This could place significant downward pressure on the Kiwi dollar, given that New Zealand’s economy is heavily reliant on exports to China. Domestically, the currency also faces additional downward pressure amid the dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with the central bank suggesting at least two rate cuts by the end of the year.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率降至4.28%左右，为一个月来的最低水平，因为在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布大幅提高关税后，投资者寻求避险资产，这加剧了可能损害经济增长的全球贸易战。在国内方面，澳大利亚储备银行周二保持利率稳定，但略微转向鸽派，取消了之前对进一步降息持谨慎态度的说法。央行承认，核心通胀正在按照预期降温，但需要相信这一趋势会持续下去。全球贸易战的风险导致交易员大幅提高了对澳大利亚储备银行今年进一步降息的预期，掉期交易意味着5月份降息25个基点的可能性约为80%。在经济新闻中，由于出口下降而进口增加，澳大利亚2月份的贸易顺差大幅收窄，这表明外部部门可能面临不利因素。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 4.28%, its lowest level in a month, as investors sought safe-haven assets after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled massive increases in tariffs, deepening a global trade war that could hurt economic growth. On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates steady on Tuesday but took a slight dovish turn by removing its previous reference to being cautious on further rate cuts. The central bank acknowledged that core inflation was cooling in line with expectations, but it needed to be confident the trend would continue. The risk of a global trade war has led traders to sharply increase their expectations for further rate cuts from the RBA this year, with swaps implying about an 80% chance of a 25bps reduction in May. In economic news, Australia’s trade surplus narrowed significantly in February as exports declined while imports increased, signaling potential headwinds for the external sector.

澳大利亚储备银行FSR：美国关税可能对商业投资和消费者支出产生寒蝉效应。澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）在周四发布的《金融稳定评论》（FSR）中警告称，美国“关税可能会对商业投资和消费者支出产生寒蝉效应”

RBA FSR: US tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.In its Financial Stability Review (FSR) published on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) warned that the US “tariffs could have a chilling effect on business investment and consumer spending.”