粗挥发油 (Naphtha) 加自选

美国天然气期货上涨至每百万英热单位近3.9美元，为2022年12月以来的最高水平，因为对全球液化天然气需求增强的押注放大了国内消费增长的前景。对1月中旬美国冷锋的最新预测促使该行业在周末将需求预测提高了180亿立方英尺。这与EIA的数据相吻合，该数据显示天然气储量连续第二周下降超过1000亿立方英尺，加深了预期的开采季节的开始。反过来，随着欧盟成员国寻找替代天然气来源，欧洲继续通过乌克兰接收俄罗斯天然气的可能性降低，促使投资者增持液化天然气头寸。这增加了美国总统任期之交对美国液化天然气的需求，当选总统特朗普承诺发放更多的液化天然气出口许可证，由于国内供应充足，促使企业倾向于更有利可图的出口，而不是更便宜的国内天然气销售。

US natural gas futures rose to near $3.9 per MMBtu, the highest since December 2022, as bets of stronger global LNG demand magnified the outlook of higher domestic consumption. Fresh forecasts of a cold front in the US halfway through January drove the industry to raise demand forecasts by 18 billion cubic feet into the weekend. This coincided with data from the EIA showing that gas storage fell by over 100bcf for the second straight week, deepening the anticipated start to the withdrawal season. In turn, the decreasing likelihood that Europe will continue to receive Russian gas through Ukraine drove investors to take long LNG positions as EU members search for alternative gas sources. This raises demand for US LNG at the turn of the US presidency, with President-elect Trump pledging to issue more LNG export permits, driving firms to favor more profitable exports instead of cheaper gas sales domestically due to the ample domestic supply.

衡量干散货商品运费的波罗的海交易所干散货指数周二微涨3点，至997点。然而，由于所有船舶类别的运价疲软，该公司公布了52.5%的年跌幅，这是自2014年以来最糟糕的一年。追踪铁矿石和煤炭等大型船舶的好望角型油轮指数上涨15点，至1147点，但今年暴跌66.7%。巴拿马型油轮指数（针对运输煤炭或粮食的中型船舶）上涨8点，至988点，年跌幅为48.7%。小型超大型船只的指数下降9点，至923点，年下降32%，为2023年8月以来的最低水平。波罗的海报告将于2025年1月2日假期后恢复。

The Baltic Exchange Dry Bulk Index, which measures shipping rates for dry bulk commodities, edged up by 3 points to 997 on Tuesday. However, it posted a 52.5% annual decline, marking its worst year since 2014 due to weak rates across all vessel categories. The capesize index, tracking large ships carrying cargoes like iron ore and coal, rose 15 points to 1,147 but plunged 66.7% this year. The panamax index, for medium-sized vessels transporting coal or grain, added 8 points to 988, down 48.7% annually. Smaller supramax vessels saw their index drop 9 points to 923, a 32% annual decrease and the lowest since August 2023. The Baltic report will resume on January 2, 2025, after the holidays.

美国股市在圣诞节前夕的一个短暂交易日走高，标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克100指数分别上涨0.7%和0.9%，道琼斯指数上涨150多点。科技股，尤其是英伟达（+0.8%），对反弹做出了贡献，特斯拉上涨4.5%，亚马逊上涨1.6%。此前，周五和周一表现强劲，主要股指在上周因对美联储行动的担忧而大幅下跌后，更接近历史高点。华尔街现在关注的是利率的未来走势，大多数人预计美联储将在1月和3月的会议上保持利率稳定。美国股市指数正走向胜利的一年，纳斯达克100指数、标准普尔500指数和道琼斯指数都将上涨30%至15%，芯片制造商的反弹推动了这一涨幅，他们押注人工智能服务的激增将提高对硬件的需求。由于预计本周交易清淡，纽约证券交易所将于周二早盘收盘，并于周三圣诞节收盘。

US stocks were higher on a short trading day of Christmas eve, as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.7% and 0.9%, respectively, and the Dow Jones added over 150 points. Tech stocks, particularly Nvidia (+0.8%), contributed to the rally, with Tesla jumping 4.5% and Amazon up 1.6%. This followed strong performances on Friday and Monday, bringing major indexes closer to their record highs after a sharp decline prompted by concerns over the Federal Reserve's actions last week. Wall Street is now focused on the future path of interest rates, with most expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at its January and March meetings. US stock indices are heading for a winning year with the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones all set to rise between 30% and 15%, carried by the rallies of chip makers amid bets that the surge in AI services will raise demand for hardware. With trading expected to be light this week, the NYSE will close early on Tuesday, and closed for Christmas Day on Wednesday.

第五次地区服务业活动调查显示，2024年12月出现了积极趋势，收入指数从9上升到23，为2021年7月以来的最高水平。未来收入和需求指数均远高于中性水平，反映出企业对未来六个月的强烈乐观情绪。当地商业状况也有所改善，该指数从10升至14，而对未来状况的乐观情绪随着该指数从32升至39而增长。就业指数保持不变，为2，企业继续提高工资，预计未来几个月将进一步上涨。技能可用性指数保持稳定，但公司预计未来六个月将有更高的招聘水平，技术工人的可用性变化很小。价格增长几乎没有变化，企业预测明年价格上涨将略有放缓。

The Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity revealed positive trends in December 2024, with the revenues index rising to 23 from 9, the highest reading since July 2021. Both future revenue and demand indexes stayed well above neutral, reflecting strong optimism among firms for the next six months. Local business conditions also saw improvement, with the index advancing to 14 from 10, while optimism about future conditions grew as the index increased to 39 from 32. The employment index remained unchanged at 2, and firms continued to raise wages, with expectations for further increases in the coming months. The skills availability index stayed steady, but firms anticipated higher hiring levels and minimal change in the availability of skilled workers over the next six months. Price growth showed little change, with businesses forecasting a slight moderation in price increases over the next year.