美国3个月期国债 (US3M) 加自选

周四，10年期美国国债收益率升至6.65%大关，延续了前两个交易日近三周低点4.58%的反弹，因为市场继续评估美国总统特朗普的政策承诺可能如何影响宏观经济背景并引发美联储的回应。这位宣誓就职的总统在接受媒体采访时，除了发出减税信号和促进人工智能基础设施投资外，还威胁要对中国、欧盟、加拿大、墨西哥和其他金砖国家征收关税，所有这些都与可能带来促通胀压力的扩张性财政政策相一致。尽管如此，市场仍押注美国央行将在今年降息，目前定价为第三季度。最新数据显示，经常性失业申请人数升至2021年11月以来的最高水平，表明劳动力市场疲软，尽管历史强劲。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose toward the 6.65% mark on Thursday, extending the rebound from the near three-week low of 4.58% two sessions earlier as markets continued to assess the how policy pledges by US President Trump may impact the macroeconomic backdrop and trigger a response by the Fed. The sworn-in President issued threats of tariffs against China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, and other BRICS nations when talking to the press, in addition to signaling tax cuts and facilitating AI infrastructure investment, all aligned with expansionary fiscal policy that risks pro-inflationary pressures. Still, markets maintained bets that the US central bank is due to deliver a rate cut this year, currently priced for the third quarter. The latest data showed that recurring unemployment claims rose to their highest since November 2021, indicating a softer, albeit historically strong, labor market.

周四，美元指数小幅下跌至108.2，此前美国失业保险首次申请人数增加，福利人数大幅增加至三年高点。截至1月18日的一周，首次申请失业救济人数增加了6000人，达到223000人，略高于预测的220000人。代表仍在领取福利但找不到工作的人的持续索赔人数跃升至190万，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，表明求职时间更长。与此同时，前总统特朗普反对实施关税的决定缓解了通胀担忧。然而，他继续对中国、墨西哥、加拿大和欧盟发出关税威胁。投资者现在关注的是下周的美联储货币政策会议。

The dollar index edged down to 108.2 on Thursday following a rise in first-time applications for US unemployment insurance and a significant increase in benefit rolls to a three-year high. Initial claims rose by 6,000 to 223,000 for the week ending Jan. 18, slightly above the 220,000 forecast. Continuing claims, representing people still on benefits who can't find jobs, jumped to 1.9 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating longer job search times. Meanwhile, former President Trump's decision against implementing tariffs has eased inflation concerns. However, he continues to issue tariff threats against China, Mexico, Canada, and the EU. Investors are now focused on next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

周四，美国股指期货持平或下跌，标准普尔500指数下跌0.2%，纳斯达克100指数下跌0.5%，道琼斯期货交易在持平附近。此前一天，标准普尔500指数在盘中创下历史新高。在对特朗普的促增长政策和人工智能投资计划的热情推动股市走高之后，交易员们稍作喘息。投资者也在等待特朗普在达沃斯世界经济论坛上的视频通话。在数据方面，最初的索赔继续表明，尽管劳动力市场强劲，但仍在降温。与此同时，财报季仍在继续，美国航空公司股价在预测第一季度意外亏损后，在盘前交易中下跌约6%。另一方面，通用电气（General Electric）股价在开盘前上涨了8%，此前该公司的盈利表现不佳。

Stock futures in the US were flat to lower on Thursday, with contracts on the S&P 500 losing 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 declining 0.5% and the Dow Jones futures trading around the flatline. It follows a winning session the day before, that saw the S&P 500 touching an intraday record high. Traders took a breather after enthusiasm around Trump's pro-growth policies and the AI investment plan sent stocks high. Investors also await Trump's video call at the World Economic Forum in Davos. On the data front, initial claims continued to point to a cooling although robust labour market. Meanwhile, the earnings season continues with shares of American Airlines sinking about 6% in premarket trading after forecasting a surprise first-quarter loss. General Electric on the other hand, jumped 8% before the opening bell after beating on earnings.

截至1月18日，美国首次申请失业救济人数比上周增加6000人，达到223000人，略高于市场预期的220000人，为六周来最大增幅。反过来，早期未决索赔人数增加了4.6万人，达到189.9万人，为2021年11月以来的最高水平，这表明那些没有工作的人需要更长的时间才能找到合适的工作，并表明美联储的限制性利率对美国劳动力市场的影响更大。首次申请失业救济人数的四周移动平均线上升了750人，达到213500人，这降低了每周的波动性。反过来，未经季节性调整的索赔人数下降了68135人，至284222人。

Initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 from the previous week to 223,000 in the period ending January 18th, slightly ahead of market expectations of 220,000, to mark the sharpest rise in six weeks. In turn, the outstanding claim count rose by 46,000 to 1,899,000 in the earlier period, the most since November of 2021, to suggest that those without jobs are taking a longer time to find suitable employment, and pointing to a greater impact of restrictive interest rates by the Fed on the US labor market. The four-week moving average for initial claims, which reduce weekly volatility, rose by 750 to 213,500. In turn, the non-seasonally adjusted claim count sank by 68,135 to 284,222.