达拉斯联邦储备银行的德克萨斯州制造业活动指数在2025年1月上涨7点，至12.2，为2021年10月以来的最高水平。此外，新订单达到2022年4月以来的最高水平，同时产能利用率和出货量也有所改善。商业状况达到多年高点，一般商业活动指数跃升至14.1，公司前景指数为18.7。就业人数略有增长，14%的公司正在招聘。价格压力增加，原材料和成品价格上涨。未来制造业预期强劲，未来生产指数飙升至44.8。

The Dallas Fed's Texas manufacturing activity index rose 7 points to 12.2 in January 2025, the highest since October 2021. Additionally, new orders hit their highest since April 2022, while capacity utilization and shipments also improved. Business conditions reached multiyear highs, with the general business activity index jumping to 14.1 and the company outlook index at 18.7. Employment grew slightly, with 14% of firms hiring. Price pressures increased, with raw materials and finished goods prices rising. Future manufacturing expectations are strong, with the future production index soaring to 44.8.

FOMC预览：美联储是否会加大特朗普的压力？。由于本月实质性政策变化的可能性微乎其微，没有发布经济预测摘要（SEP），除了“按市值计价”官员对劳动力市场的评估外，联邦公开市场委员会货币政策声明几乎没有必要的更新，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会可能是交易员的主要波动催化剂。

FOMC Preview: Fed Hold to Increase Pressure from Trump?.With only a vanishingly small probability of a substantive policy change this month, no Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) set for release, and little in the way of necessary updates to the FOMC's Monetary Policy Statement outside of “marking to market” officials' assessment of the labor market, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference is likely to be the main volatility catalyst for traders.

2024年12月，美国新独栋房屋的销售额较上月增长3.6%，经季节性调整后的年化率为69.8万套，为9月以来的最高水平，远高于市场预期的67万套。尽管在此期间基准抵押贷款利率飙升，但这一增长与市场对高通胀将迫使美联储在此期间保持鹰派立场的担忧相一致。西部（20.3%至15.4万）和东北部（41.7%至3.4万）的销售额增长，而南部（-2.1%至42.3万）和中西部（-3.3%至8.7万）的销量略有下降。房屋的中位数价格为42.7万美元，而平均售价为513600美元。反过来，待售房屋的库存为49.4万套，按目前的销售速度计算，相当于8.5个月。

Sales of new single-family homes in the United States rose by 3.6% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 698,000 homes in December of 2024, the most since September, and firmly above market expectations of 670,000. The rise was despite the surge in benchmark mortgage rates in the period, which were aligned with market concerns that high inflation would force the Fed to remain hawkish for the meantime. Sales growth was carried by the West (20.3% to 154,000) and the Northeast (41.7% to 34,000), while sales were slightly lower in the South (-2.1% to 423,000) and the Midwest (-3.3% to 87,000). The median price for homes was $427,000, while the average sales price was $513,600. In turn, the inventory of homes for sale was 494,000, equivalent to 8.5 months at the current sales rate.

周一，美国股市暴跌，标准普尔500指数下跌1.8%，道琼斯指数下跌约207点，纳斯达克指数下跌近3%，原因是人们对美国在人工智能领域的主导地位日益担忧。中国初创公司DeepSeek的最新人工智能模型因其成本效益和在不太先进的芯片上运行的能力而受到称赞，随着其人工智能助手超越ChatGPT成为美国苹果应用商店评分最高的免费应用程序，该模型引起了广泛关注。科技行业是迄今为止表现最差的。英伟达股价下跌超过10%，博通股价下跌11.5%，美光科技股价下跌超过7%。与此同时，交易员们正在密切关注包括苹果、微软、Meta和特斯拉在内的大型企业即将公布的季度业绩，预计这些企业将对人工智能驱动的牛市轨迹产生重大影响。在经济方面，预计美联储将保持利率稳定，而包括GDP增长和个人消费支出通胀数据在内的关键数据发布仍然是关注的焦点。

US stocks tumbled on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling 1.8%, the Dow Jones dropping roughly 207 points, and the Nasdaq nearly 3%, driven by growing concerns about the US's dominance in AI. Chinese startup DeepSeek's latest AI model, praised for its cost-effectiveness and ability to operate on less-advanced chips, garnered significant attention as its AI Assistant overtook ChatGPT to become the top-rated free app on the US Apple App Store. The tech sector was by far the worst performer. Nvidia sank more than 10%, Broadcom slumped 11.5% and Micron Technology lost over 7%. Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring upcoming quarterly results from megacaps, including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla, which are expected to heavily influence the trajectory of the AI-driven bull market. On the economic front, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to hold interest rates steady, while key data releases, including GDP growth and PCE inflation figures, remain in focus.