德国10年期国债收益率微涨至2.64%,而包括法国和意大利在内的整个欧洲的长期国债收益率涨幅更大,超过5个基点,反映了美国国债收益率的整体上涨。收益率的上升是在4月9日美国实施互惠关税之后发生的,其中包括对中国进口商品征收104%的关税。新的贸易紧张局势加深了投资者对全球增长放缓、美国经济衰退风险和持续通胀压力的担忧,这可能会限制美联储在短期内降息的能力。相比之下,人们普遍预计欧洲央行本月将降息25个基点,市场预计年底前还会再降息两次,如果经济状况进一步恶化,人们越来越多地猜测可能会采取第三次降息措施。
Germany’s 10-year Bund yield inched up to 2.64% while longer-dated yields across Europe, including France and Italy, rose more sharply - by over 5 basis points - mirroring a broader move higher in US Treasury yields. The rise in yields followed the implementation of US reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, which included a 104% levy on Chinese imports. The renewed trade tensions have deepened investor concerns over slowing global growth, the risk of a US recession, and persistent inflationary pressures, which could constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates in the near term. In contrast, the ECB is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut this month, with markets pricing in two additional reductions before year-end, and growing speculation around the possibility of a third move should economic conditions deteriorate further.