西太平洋银行墨尔本研究所澳大利亚领先经济指数在前四个月持平后，于2024年8月环比下跌0.1%。与此同时，该指数的六个月年化增长率从7月的0.04降至8月的-0.27，该指数表明了未来三到九个月经济活动相对于趋势的可能速度。西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观预测主管Matthew Hassan表示，最新数据表明，低于趋势的增长将在2025年上半年继续。此外，大宗商品价格的疲软一直持续到9月上半月，这表明这将在未来几个月对领先指数的增长脉冲产生重大拖累。预计储备银行将在9月底的下次会议上保持官方现金利率不变，并对通货膨胀保持“警惕”立场。

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia edged down 0.1% month-over-month in August 2024 after being flat for the previous four months. Meanwhile, the six-month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to the trend three to nine months into the future, declined to -0.27 in August from 0.04 in July. According to Matthew Hassan, Head of Australian Macro-Forecasting at Westpac, the latest reading implies that below-trend growth will continue in the first half of 2025. Additionally, the weakening in commodity prices has continued into the first half of September, suggesting this will exert a significant drag on the Leading Index growth pulse in the months ahead. The Reserve Bank is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged and maintain its ‘vigilant’ stance on inflation during its next meeting in late September.