美元走弱，投资者对美国避险资产信心动摇。由于美中贸易紧张局势升级和关税上调，美元兑主要货币走弱，动摇了投资者信心。这导致美元兑瑞士法郎和欧元跌至多年低点，而金价飙升。

US Dollar weakens with investor confidence shaken in US safe-haven assets.The dollar weakened against major currencies amid escalating trade tensions and tariff hikes between the U.S. and China, shaking investor confidence. This sent the dollar to multi-year lows against the Swiss franc and euro, while gold prices soared.

下周，随着投资者继续关注贸易方面的发展，全球市场将保持高度敏感。围绕关税升级影响的不确定性，特别是对美国经济的影响，继续笼罩着市场情绪，并推动各资产类别的波动。与此同时，美国的财报季将加速，包括高盛、美国银行和花旗集团在内的主要金融机构将与强生、雅培实验室、美国运通、黑石、联合健康集团和网飞一起发布财报。在经济日历上，关键数据发布将包括美国零售销售和工业生产、中国第一季度GDP增长数据、德国ZEW经济情绪指数、英国通胀和劳动力市场数据，以及日本和印度的CPI读数。与此同时，包括欧洲央行、加拿大银行、土耳其央行和韩国银行在内的几家主要央行计划宣布政策决定。

Next week, global markets are set to remain highly sensitive as investors continue to monitor developments on the trade front. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of escalating tariffs—particularly on the US economy continues to cloud sentiment and drive volatility across asset classes. At the same time, the US earnings season will ramp up, with major financial institutions including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Citigroup set to report, alongside Johnson & Johnson, Abbott Laboratories, American Express, Blackstone, UnitedHealth Group, and Netflix. On the economic calendar, key data releases will include US retail sales and industrial production, Q1 GDP growth figures from China, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index, UK inflation and labor market data, and CPI readings from Japan and India. Meanwhile, several major central banks are scheduled to announce policy decisions, including the European Central Bank, Bank of Canada, Central Bank of Turkey, and Bank of Korea.

周五，美国10年期国债收益率飙升约10个基点，至4.5%以上，达到2月中旬以来的最高水平。本周收益率有望上涨50多个基点，创下2019年9月以来美国债券市场最剧烈的单周抛售。随着投资者越来越多地撤出美国资产，美国国债的暴跌加剧，这表明对美国政府债务传统避险地位的信心可能会受到侵蚀。此次抛售是在贸易紧张局势升级和对美国前景日益担忧的背景下发生的，人们担心经济衰退和高通胀。中国财政部宣布，将把对美国进口商品的关税提高到125%，以回应华盛顿对中国商品征收高达145%的关税。与此同时，新的数据增加了悲观的前景。密歇根大学的消费者信心在4月份暴跌至2022年以来的最低水平，而一年期通胀预期飙升至1981年以来的最高水平。

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note surged roughly 10bps to above 4.5% on Friday, reaching its highest level since mid-February. Yields are now on track to rise more than 50bps this week, marking the sharpest weekly selloff in the US bond market since September 2019. The rout in Treasuries deepened as investors increasingly rotated out of US assets, signaling a potential erosion of confidence in the traditional safe-haven status of US government debt. The selloff comes against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions and mounting concerns over the US outlook, with fears of a recession and high inflation. The Chinese finance ministry announced that it will raise tariffs on US imports to 125%, in response to Washington’s tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, fresh data added to the gloomy picture. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment plunged in April to its lowest level since 2022, while one-year inflation expectations soared to levels not seen since 1981.

美联储的Musalem：在通胀问题上还有更多工作要做。圣路易斯联邦储备委员会主席阿尔贝托·穆萨勒姆表示，他正在密切关注短期通胀预期的上升是否会渗透到长期通胀预期中，并指出这种发展可能会使对抗通胀的努力复杂化，并削弱美联储在解决劳动力市场疲软方面的灵活性。

Fed's Musalem: There is more work to do on inflation.St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem indicated that he was closely monitoring whether a rise in short-term inflation expectations was seeping into longer-term ones, noting that such a development could complicate efforts to combat inflation and diminish the Fed's flexibility in addressing labour market weaknesses.