芝加哥商业晴雨表，也称为芝加哥采购经理人指数，在2025年1月升至39.5，高于上个月的六个月低点36.9，但低于市场预期的40。这是连续三个月下降后的首次上涨，尽管该指数仍低于2024年11月的水平和2024年的平均水平。新订单反弹13.8点，扭转了上个月的下降趋势，而产量增加了4.0点，与11月持平。库存增加14.9点，在连续四个月下降后，自2023年11月以来首次恢复到扩张水平。然而，就业率下降了9.0个百分点，降至2020年6月以来的最低水平。价格走势方面，支付价格回落2.7点，为连续第四次下跌，为2024年7月以来的最低水平。

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, rose to 39.5 in January 2025, up from a six-month low of 36.9 in the prior month, but missing market expectations of 40. This is the first increase after three consecutive months of decline, though the index remains below both the level of November 2024 and the 2024 average. New orders rebounded by 13.8 points, more than reversing the decline from the previous month, while production increased by 4.0 points, matching the level seen in November. Inventories increased by 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023, following four consecutive months of decline. However, employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Regarding price development, prices paid eased 2.7 points, the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.

周五，10年期美国国债收益率降至4.5%，为六周来的最低水平，因为最新价格数据没有出现上行意外，使市场能够持有反映美联储今年多次降息的头寸。以核心个人消费支出价格指数衡量的基本通胀在12月如预期般上升，反映出其路径仍在联邦公开市场委员会的最新预测范围内。早些时候发布的数据显示，美国第四季度GDP年化增长率为2.3%，低于早些时候市场普遍认为的2.6%，但与2024年底创纪录的高进口将给GDP带来压力的预期一致。与此同时，市场正在等待美国总统政府是否会在周末之前对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税的进一步明确，因为特朗普总统的更多威胁与本周早些时候政府官员发出的相互矛盾的信息形成鲜明对比。市场继续为美联储今年两次降息做好准备。

The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note eased toward 4.5% on Friday, the lowest in six weeks, as the lack of upside surprises to the latest price data allowed the market to hold positions that reflect multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year. Underlying inflation measured by the core PCE price index rose as expected in December, reflecting a path that remains within the latest projections by the FOMC. An earlier release showed the US GDP expanded by an annualized 2.3% in Q4, below the earlier market consensus of 2.6%, but aligning with expectations that record-high imports in late 2024 would pressure the GDP. In the meantime, markets awaited further clarity on whether the US Presidential administration would follow through with imposing tariffs on Canada and Mexico by the weekend, as more threats by President Trump contrasted with conflicting messages from government officials earlier in the week. Markets continued to be positioned for two rate cuts by the Fed this year.

周五，美国股市上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨0.5%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.9%，道琼斯指数上涨约90点，苹果股价飙升近4%。这家科技巨头报告称，尽管iPhone销量低于预期，但收入增长了4%，并对本季度发布了积极展望。与此同时，英特尔上涨1%，艾伯维在盈利和收入超过预期后飙升约7.6%。另一方面，埃克森美孚股价下跌0.8%，此前其收益低于预期，雪佛龙股价下跌约2.2%，因其炼油业务自2020年以来首次出现亏损。在数据方面，个人消费支出价格、个人收入和就业成本与预测一致，强化了美联储本周早些时候的立场。三大平均指数有望在1月收盘时强劲上涨。道琼斯指数迄今上涨5.5%，而标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数分别上涨3.2%和1.9%。

Stocks in the US were higher on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.5%, the Nasdaq adding 0.9%, and Dow Jones gaining about 90 points, driven by an almost 4% surge in Apple shares. The tech giant reported a 4% increase in revenue and issued a positive outlook for the current quarter, despite iPhone sales falling short of expectations. Meanwhile, Intel gained 1% and AbbVie soared about 7.6% after an earnings and revenue beat. On the other hand, Exxon Mobil was down 0.8% after its earnings missed estimates and shares of Chevron dropped about 2.2% as its refining business booked a loss for the first time since 2020. On the data front, PCE prices, personal income, and employment costs aligned with forecasts, reinforcing the Fed's stance from earlier in the week. The 3 major averages are on track to close the January with strong gains. The Dow is up 5.5% so far, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained 3.2% and 1.9%, respectively.

美联储的Goolsbee：政策不确定性可能影响价格。据路透社报道，在周五接受CNBC采访时，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长奥斯坦·古尔斯比表示，他对他们正在走向2%的通货膨胀感到欣慰。

Fed's Goolsbee: Policy uncertainties might affect prices.In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that he has comfort that they are on the path to 2% inflation, per Reuters.