英国10年期国债收益率为4.54%，今年已攀升100个基点，表现落后于美国和德国同行。上周，英格兰银行将关键利率维持在4.75%，但令人惊讶的投票结果显示，三名政策制定者支持降息，这表明2025年可能会更快地放松政策。这一转变让债券投资者放心，在持续通胀和公共债务不断增加的情况下，债券投资者推高了金边债券收益率。英国央行的谨慎立场与美联储形成鲜明对比，美联储降息但仅表示明年将降息两次，这提振了美元并给英镑带来了压力。与此同时，英国10月份工资增长加速，11月份通货膨胀率升至2.6%的八个月高点，支持未来逐步降息。然而，英国的经济前景仍然黯淡，第三季度GDP持平，第二季度增长率下调至0.4%，突显了首相基尔·斯塔默新政府面临的挑战。

The UK 10-year gilt yield stands at 4.54%, having climbed 100 bps this year, underperforming US and German counterparts. The Bank of England kept its key interest rate at 4.75% last week, but a surprising vote split, with three policymakers favoring rate cuts, signaled potential faster easing in 2025. This shift reassured bond investors, who had pushed gilt yields higher amid persistent inflation and mounting public debt. The BoE’s cautious stance contrasted with the Fed, which cut rates but signaled only two reductions next year, boosting the dollar and pressuring the pound. Meanwhile, British wage growth accelerated through October, and inflation rose to an eight-month high of 2.6% in November, supporting gradual rate cuts ahead. However, the UK’s economic outlook remains bleak, with GDP flatlining in the third quarter and second-quarter growth revised down to 0.4%, underscoring the challenges faced by Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s new administration.