由于高通胀,俄罗斯央行在9月份将关键利率上调100个基点至19%,预计将超过2024年预测的6.5-7.0%。需求增长快于供应,促使进一步加息以遏制通货膨胀,并在2025年前将其恢复到4.0%-4.5%的目标。8月份,价格年增长率为7.6%,通胀预期正在上升。由于供应限制和外部需求疲软,经济增长放缓,但在收入增加和高投资的推动下,消费者活动仍然强劲。劳动力市场紧张,失业率创历史新低,工资增长超过生产率。收紧的货币环境正在推高市场利率并影响贷款。通货膨胀风险正在上升,这与外贸恶化和高通胀预期有关。
The Bank of Russia raised the key rate by 100 bps to 19% in September due to high inflation, which is expected to exceed the 2024 forecast of 6.5-7.0%. Demand is growing faster than supply, prompting further rate hikes to curb inflation and return it to the 4.0-4.5% target by 2025. In August, price growth was 7.6% annualized, and inflation expectations are rising. Economic growth has slowed due to supply constraints and weaker external demand, but consumer activity remains strong, driven by rising incomes and high investment. The labor market is tight, with record-low unemployment and wage growth outpacing productivity. Tightened monetary conditions are pushing up market rates and affecting lending. Inflation risks are growing, linked to worsening foreign trade and high inflation expectations.