根据一项初步估计，意大利的年通货膨胀率从前两个月的1.3%上升到2025年1月的1.5%，远高于其保持在1.3%的预期，这标志着自2023年10月以来消费者价格的最大涨幅。这一加速是由于受监管能源商品的增长（27.8%，2024年12月为12.7%），追踪了选定欧洲国家的电价上涨，因为俄罗斯停止向欧洲输送天然气引发了液化天然气价格飙升，而意大利增加了对德国的电力出口。反过来，非监管能源通缩放缓（-3%对-4.2%）。加工食品的成本也有所上升（2%对1.7%），抵消了运输服务（2.5%对3.6%）和通信服务（0.9%对1.2%）通胀放缓的影响。与此同时，年度核心通胀率保持在1.8%不变。

Italy’s annual inflation rate rose to 1.5% in January of 2025 from 1.3% in the previous two months, well ahead of expectations that it would have remained at 1.3%, to mark the sharpest increase in consumer prices since October of 2023, according to a flash estimate. The acceleration was owed to the increase in regulated energy goods )27.8% vs 12.7% in December 2024), tracking the rise in power prices across selected European countries as the halt of gas flows from Russia to Europe triggered surges in LNG prices, while Italy increased the export of power to Germany. In turn, non-regulated energy deflation slowed (-3% vs -4.2%). Costs also rose for processed food (2% vs 1.7%), offsetting the slowdown in inflation for transportation services (2.5% vs 3.6%) and communication services (0.9% vs 1.2%). In the meantime, annual core inflation was unchanged at 1.8%.

10年期意大利BTP收益率降至3.53%，为一个月来的最低水平，追随欧洲债券收益率的更广泛下滑，此前特朗普政府周末决定对加拿大、墨西哥和中国征收关税，这引发了人们对贸易战升级的担忧。特朗普总统还警告说，对欧洲征收关税是不可避免的，尽管他没有具体说明时间表。与此同时，最近的经济数据增强了人们对欧洲央行进一步降息的预期。法国和德国几个州的通胀数据表明，价格增长放缓，这表明1月份能源价格飙升的影响有限。此外，欧元区第四季度GDP意外停滞，反映出法国和德国国内增长疲软和收缩，均低于预期。

The yield on the 10-year Italian BTP declined to 3.53%, the lowest level in a month, tracking a broader slide in European bond yields and following the Trump administration’s decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China over the weekend, which raised concerns of an escalating trade war. President Trump also warned that tariffs on Europe were inevitable, though he did not specify a timeline. Meanwhile, recent economic data reinforced expectations of further ECB rate cuts. Inflation figures from France and several German states indicated slowing price growth, suggesting only a limited impact from January’s surge in energy prices. Additionally, the Eurozone’s GDP unexpectedly stagnated in Q4, reflecting weak domestic growth and contractions in both France and Germany, all falling short of forecasts.

富时MIB指数周一早盘下跌1%，追随美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对加拿大、墨西哥和中国商品征收关税后全球市场的下跌，促使这些国家立即采取报复措施。特朗普还威胁要对欧盟征收关税，欧盟誓言做出坚定回应。在大盘股中，法拉利（-2.1%）、意法半导体（-4.5%）和普睿司曼（-2.9%）的跌幅显著。数据显示，中国工厂活动增长放缓后，奢侈品牌Moncler（-1.3%）和Brunello Cucinelli（-1.7%）也面临压力。在国内新闻方面，意大利制造业在1月份略有改善，但连续第十个月保持收缩。

The FTSE MIB tumbled 1% in early trading on Monday, tracking a decline in global markets after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, prompting immediate retaliatory measures from these countries. Trump has also threatened to impose tariffs on the EU, with the bloc vowing a firm response. Among large-cap stocks, notable losses were seen from Ferrari (-2.1%), STMicroelectronics (-4.5%), and Prysmian (-2.9%). Luxury brands Moncler (-1.3%) and Brunello Cucinelli (-1.7%) also faced pressure after data revealed that China's factory activity growth had slowed. In domestic news, Italy's manufacturing sector improved slightly in January but remained in contraction for the tenth consecutive month.

HCOB意大利制造业采购经理人指数从12月的46.2微升至2025年1月的46.3，低于46.8的预测，标志着在需求持续疲软的情况下连续第10个月出现收缩。虽然新订单下降幅度更大，但产量收缩速度略慢。投入品购买量进一步下降，这支持了减少投入品库存的努力。企业也在继续裁员，尽管裁员速度有所放缓。在价格方面，意大利制造商的投入价格连续第二次上涨，为2024年8月以来的最高水平，但产出费用以2024年3月以来的最大幅度削减，以保持竞争力。展望未来，企业对今年增长前景的信心有所增强，乐观情绪达到去年8月以来的最高水平，超过了长期系列平均水平，这得益于对国际政治稳定和新客户获胜的希望。

The HCOB Italy Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 46.3 in January 2025, from December's 46.2, missing forecasts of 46.8, marking the 10th consecutive month of contraction amid persistent weak demand. While new orders declined more sharply, production volumes contracted at a slightly slower rate. Input buying dropped further, with the decrease supporting efforts to reduce input stocks. Firms also continued to cut jobs, though the pace of job shedding slowed. On the price front, Italian manufacturers saw a second consecutive rise in input prices, the strongest since August 2024, but output charges were cut at the sharpest rate since March 2024 to remain competitive. Looking ahead, businesses recorded increased confidence in growth prospects for the year, with optimism reaching its highest level since last August and surpassing the long-run series average, driven by hopes of international political stability and new client wins.