德国10年期国债收益率跌至2.464%，为三周多来的最低水平，因为投资者在令人失望的经济数据公布后加大了对欧洲央行进一步降息的押注。德国失业率上升凸显了欧洲最大经济体的持续挣扎，而德国各州和法国的通胀数据表明价格持续降温。货币市场调整了前景，目前预计欧洲央行的存款利率将从之前的2.05%降至2025年12月的1.93%。就在这一转变发生的前一天，央行连续第四次降息，坚称尽管服务业持续面临压力，欧元区的通缩趋势仍在正轨上。与此同时，美联储周三维持利率不变，并暗示将暂停加息。

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield slid to 2.464%, the lowest in over three weeks, as investors increased bets on further ECB rate cuts following disappointing economic data. Rising unemployment in Germany underscored the ongoing struggles in Europe’s largest economy, while inflation figures from German states and France signaled continued price cooling. Money markets adjusted their outlook, now expecting the ECB’s deposit rate to drop to 1.93% by December 2025, down from 2.05% previously. This shift comes just a day after the central bank cut rates for the fourth consecutive time, maintaining that the Eurozone’s disinflation trend remains on track despite persistent pressures in the services sector. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold on Wednesday and hinted at a pause.

德国经季节性调整的失业率从上个月的6.1%上升到2025年1月的6.2%，符合市场预期。这是自2020年10月以来的最高失业率，失业人数增加了11000人，达到288万人，仍低于预期的14000人的增长。“失业和就业不足在年初大幅增加 劳工办公室主任Andrea Nahles表示：“今年，就像本月一样。”。

Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 6.2% in January 2025 from 6.1% in the previous month, in line with market expectations. It was the highest jobless rate since October 2020, as the number of unemployed individuals rose by 11,000 to 2.88 million, still less than the anticipated 14,000 increase. "Unemployment and underemployment increased significantly at the start of the year, as is usual for this month," said labour office head Andrea Nahles.

DAX指数周五徘徊在21700左右，接近最近的历史高点，因为市场参与者监测了欧洲和美国的关键通胀数据，同时也评估了最新的企业盈利报告。德国的初步数据将于今天公布，经济学家预计1月份的年通胀率将稳定在2.6%。欧洲央行周四将利率下调25个基点至2.75%后，拉加德表示，如果通胀缓解，经济状况需要额外支持，可能会进一步放松。人们的注意力也转移到了定于周六公布的唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税公告上。DAX指数有望连续第四周上涨约1.5%，1月份涨幅将超过9%。

The DAX hovered around 21,700 on Friday, nearing recent record highs, as market participants monitored key inflation data from both Europe and the US, while also evaluating the latest corporate earnings reports. Preliminary figures for Germany is due today, with economists expecting the annual inflation rate to hold steady at 2.6% in January. Following a 25bps rate cut to 2.75% by the ECB on Thursday, President Lagarde indicated that further easing could be on the table if inflation eases and economic conditions warrant additional support. Attention also shifted to President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, scheduled for Saturday. The DAX was on track for its fourth consecutive weekly rise of about 1.5% and is heading for an over 9% gain in January.

德国巴伐利亚州1月份CPI（同比）从之前的3.2%降至2.5%。德国巴伐利亚州1月份CPI（同比）从之前的3.2%降至2.5%

Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) declined to 2.5% in January from previous 3.2%.Germany Bavaria CPI (YoY) declined to 2.5% in January from previous 3.2%