2024年11月，加拿大政府预算赤字扩大至82.1亿加元，低于去年同期的40亿加元。在2024/25财政年度的前八个月（4月至11月），该国记录了227亿加元的赤字，比去年同期报告的191亿加元赤字有所扩大。项目费用飙升21.3%，主要是由于直接项目费用增加和加拿大污染定价收益增加，而公共债务费用上涨2.6%，反映了可销售债券和国库券的有效利率提高，以及可销售债券存量的增加。与此同时，政府收入增长了8.4%，主要是由于企业和个人所得税收入增加。

Canada's government budget deficit widened to CAD 8.21 billion in November 2024, down from CAD 4 billion in the same month of the previous year. During the first eight months of the 2024/25 fiscal year (April-November), the country recorded a deficit of CAD 22.7 billion, widening from the CAD 19.1 billion deficit reported in the same period a year earlier. Program expenses surged 21.3%, driven by higher direct program expenses and pollution pricing proceeds returned to Canadians, while public debt charges rose by 2.6%, reflecting higher effective rates on marketable bonds and treasury bills, as well as an increase in the stock of marketable bonds. Meanwhile, government revenues climbed by 8.4%, largely due to higher corporate and personal income tax revenue.

周五，标准普尔/多伦多证交所综合指数徘徊在25840点的水平线之上，保持在接近历史高点的水平，并有望在1月份上涨约4%。投资者普遍持谨慎态度，因为市场正在等待特朗普总统是否会兑现他对加拿大和墨西哥的关税威胁，此前他一再发出警告，与政府官员的相互矛盾的声明形成鲜明对比。涨幅最大的是大型股Shopify和Brookfield各上涨约1%，而主要矿业股延续了强劲势头，随着金价创下历史新高，Agnico Eagle、Barrick Gold、Wheaton Precious Metals和Franco-Nevada上涨了0.5%至1%。然而，能源板块拖累该指数，加拿大天然气公司、森科尔公司、帝国石油公司和Cenovus公司均下跌超过1%，原因是担心加拿大最大石油出口目的地可能征收关税。与此同时，加拿大12月份的国内生产总值预计将增长0.2%。

The S&P/TSX Composite Index hovered above the flatline at the 25,840 mark on Friday, holding near record highs and poised for around 4% gains in January, amid investor caution prevailed as markets awaited clarity on whether President Trump would follow through with his tariff threats on Canada and Mexico, following his repeated warnings that contrasted with conflicting statements from government officials. Leading the gains were mega caps Shopify and Brookfield each adding around 1%, while major mining stocks extended their strong momentum, with Agnico Eagle, Barrick Gold, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada adding between 0.5% and 1% as gold prices reached record highs. However, the energy sector dragged on the index, with Canadian Natural, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Cenovus all losing over 1% amid concerns over potential tariffs from Canada’s top oil export destination. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% in December.

加拿大10年期政府债券收益率跌至3.1%以下，创七周新低，因为加拿大央行采取了越来越温和的立场，并结束了量化紧缩计划。中国银行将利率下调25个基点至3%，这是自2024年6月以来总共下调200个基点的一部分，同时计划从3月开始恢复资产购买。最初，资产购买将通过回购计划恢复，随后通过拍卖购买加拿大政府票据，该银行的目标是在2026年底前恢复二级市场债券购买。与此同时，加拿大12月的国内生产总值预计将增长0.2%，2024年的年增长率为1.4%，与加拿大银行的预测一致。

Canada's 10-year government bond yield fell below 3.1%, marking a seven-week low, as the Bank of Canada adopted an increasingly dovish stance and concluded its quantitative tightening program. The BoC's 25 basis point rate cut to 3%, part of a total 200 basis point reduction since June 2024, was accompanied by plans to resume asset purchases starting in March. Initially, asset purchases will be restored via the repo program, followed by the purchase of Government of Canada bills through auctions, with the Bank aiming to restore secondary market bond purchases by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP is expected to have grown by 0.2% in December, translating to an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2024, in line with the Bank of Canada’s projections.

加元兑美元汇率跌至9年来的最低点1.45，主要是由于贸易不确定性加剧以及加拿大和美国之间货币政策的分歧。市场仍在等待特朗普总统是否会在周末之前兑现对加拿大征收关税的威胁，因为他一再发出的警告与本周早些时候政府官员的相互矛盾的声明相冲突。与此同时，加拿大12月的国内生产总值预计将增长0.2%，如果得到证实，这一数字将转化为2024年1.4%的年增长率，与加拿大银行的预期一致。早些时候，中国银行将关键利率下调25个基点至3.0%，并结束了量化紧缩计划，计划在3月初恢复资产购买。与此同时，美联储的行动表明金融状况趋紧，收益率差距进一步扩大，给加元带来了额外压力。

The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.45 per USD, a nine-year low, largely driven by heightened trade uncertainty and diverging monetary policies between Canada and the U.S. Markets were left awaiting clarity on whether President Trump would follow through with his threats to impose tariffs on Canada by the weekend, as his repeated warnings clashed with contradictory statements from government officials earlier in the week. Meanwhile, Canadian GDP is expected to have expanded by 0.2% in December, and if confirmed, the figure would translate to an annual growth rate of 1.4% in 2024, aligned with expectations from the Bank of Canada. Earlier, the BoC lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.0% and brought an end to its quantitative tightening program, with plans to resume asset purchases in early March. Meanwhile, the U.S. Fed's actions are signaling tighter financial conditions, further widening the yield differential and putting additional pressure on the loonie.