欧元/美元、美元/日元和澳元/美元预测——美元兑其他主要货币涨跌互现。美元正在关注上一届联邦公开市场委员会新闻发布会上的无稽之谈，以及美国先进GDP低于预期。

EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Forecast – US Dollar Mixed Against Other Major Currencies.The US dollar is looking at the nonsense at the FOMC press conference from the previous session, as well as a cooler than expected Advanced GDP in the US.

澳元/日元跌破96.50，由于日本央行可能加息，进一步下跌。澳元/日元连续第二天下跌，周四欧洲交易时段徘徊在96.30左右。澳元/日元交叉盘的下跌是由于对日本央行（BoJ）将继续加息周期的预期越来越高。

AUD/JPY drops below 96.50, further downside appears due to potential BoJ rate hikes.AUD/JPY declines for the second consecutive day, hovering around 96.30 during European trading hours on Thursday. The AUD/JPY cross's downside is driven by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue its rate-hiking cycle.

周四，标准普尔/ASX 200指数上涨0.55%，收于8494点，在澳大利亚通胀降温的推动下，盘中创下历史新高。这引发了人们对澳大利亚储备银行可能很快开始降息的预期。包括西太平洋银行和澳大利亚国民银行在内的主要银行已经提出了对澳大利亚储备银行首次降息的预测，现在预测这可能会在2月而不是5月发生。尽管美联储决定暂停降息周期，同时承认通胀仍然“有所上升”，华尔街股市一夜之间大幅下跌，但澳大利亚股市也上涨了。消费、科技、金融和大宗商品相关股票领涨，麦格理集团（上涨1.4%）、贵族休闲（上涨3.7%）和South32（上涨2.1%）表现突出。然而，Zip Co和Appen在季度业绩令人失望后，分别下跌25.4%和4.6%，面临大幅下跌。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.55% to close at 8,494 on Thursday, reaching fresh all-time highs during the session, driven by cooling inflation in Australia. This fueled expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may soon start cutting interest rates. Major banks, including Westpac and NAB, have brought forward their forecasts for the first RBA rate cut, now predicting it could happen in February rather than May. Australian shares also gained despite a sharp decline on Wall Street overnight, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its rate-cutting cycle while acknowledging that inflation remains “somewhat elevated.” Consumer, technology, financial, and commodity-linked stocks led the rally, with notable performances from Macquarie Group (up 1.4%), Aristocrat Leisure (up 3.7%), and South32 (up 2.1%). However, Zip Co and Appen faced significant declines, falling 25.4% and 4.6%, respectively, after disappointing quarterly results.

澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率小幅上涨至4.43%左右，投资者继续评估澳大利亚储备银行的货币政策前景。市场目前预计，在2月份的澳大利亚储备银行今年第一次会议上，4.35%的现金利率有95%的可能性降低25个基点。然而，投资者对长期前景并不那么温和，预计到今年年底利率将降至3.50%左右。在通胀数据低于预期后，对2月份降息的预期增强，这导致一些澳大利亚主要银行提前预测澳大利亚储备银行将于5月至2月首次降息。与此同时，在美国，美联储如普遍预期的那样保持利率稳定，对今年的政策宽松几乎没有什么看法。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose slightly to around 4.43% as investors continued to assess the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy outlook. Markets are currently pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps reduction in the 4.35% cash rate at the RBA's first meeting of the year in February. However, investors are less dovish on the longer-term outlook, anticipating rates to drop to around 3.50% by the end of the year. Expectations for a February rate cut strengthened following softer-than-expected inflation data, which has led some major Australian banks to bring forward their forecast for the RBA’s first rate cut from May to February. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as widely expected and gave little insight about policy easing this year.