澳大利亚10年期政府债券收益率升至4.47%左右，此前美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普强调他计划于2月1日对加拿大和墨西哥征收25%的关税，导致美国债券收益率上升。特朗普还提到了对澳大利亚最大贸易伙伴中国的关税，但没有提供具体细节。在国内，周三令人惊讶的疲软消费者通胀报告为澳大利亚储备银行近期降息打开了大门。目前，市场暗示，在2月份的澳大利亚储备银行今年第一次会议上，4.35%的现金利率有95%的可能性降低25个基点。此外，澳大利亚四大银行现在都暗示将在2月份采取行动。在最新的经济新闻中，澳大利亚第四季度的生产者价格通胀从上一季度的3.9%放缓至3.7%。

Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.47%, following an uptick in U.S. bond yields after former President Donald Trump emphasized his plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on February 1. Trump also mentioned tariffs on China, Australia’s largest trading partner, but provided no specific details. Domestically, a surprisingly soft consumer inflation report on Wednesday opened the door to a near-term rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Currently, markets are implying a 95% probability of a 25bps reduction in the 4.35% cash rate at the RBA's first meeting of the year in February. In addition, all four of Australia's major banks are now tipping a February move. In the latest economic news, producer price inflation in Australia slowed to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, from 3.9% in the previous quarter.

周五，澳元稳定在0.622美元左右，但仍有可能出现每周大幅下跌，因为人们对澳大利亚储备银行将于2月开始降息的预期有所上升。本周早些时候公布的数据显示，澳大利亚第四季度的年通胀率从第三季度的2.8%降至2.4%，略低于2.5%的预测。第四季度生产者通胀率也降至3.7%，而第三季度为3.9%。市场预计，在2月18日的央行会议上，现金利率下调25个基点至4.35%的可能性为95%。周六，特朗普总统重申了对墨西哥和加拿大征收25%关税的计划，而对中国征收10%关税的计划仍在考虑中，澳元也面临着美元走强的压力。此外，澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴中国持续的经济担忧继续对澳元造成压力。

The Australian dollar stabilized around $0.622 on Friday but was still on track for a sharp weekly decline, as expectations rise that the Reserve Bank of Australia will begin cutting interest rates in February. Data released earlier this week showed Australia’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.4% in Q4, down from 2.8% in Q3 and slightly below the 2.5% forecast. Producer inflation also eased to 3.7% in Q4, compared to 3.9% in Q3. Markets are pricing in a 95% chance of a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate to 4.35% at the central bank’s meeting on February 18. The Aussie also faced pressure from a stronger US dollar after President Trump reaffirmed plans to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday, while a 10% tariff on China remains under consideration. Additionally, ongoing economic concerns in China, Australia’s largest trading partner, continued to weigh on the local currency.

周五，标准普尔/ASX 200指数飙升0.8%，至8560点左右，创下历史新高，这得益于采矿和科技行业的强劲表现。澳大利亚股市也追随华尔街的涨势，芯片和人工智能股票继续从周一的抛售中复苏，这是由于对中国DeepSeek的担忧引发的，DeepSeek是西方人工智能领导者的新竞争对手。此外，国内通胀的缓解提振了当地股市，这加剧了人们对澳大利亚储备银行可能很快开始降息的预期。市场目前预计，在2月18日的央行会议上，现金利率下调25个基点至4.35%的可能性为95%。必和必拓集团（+1.6%）、Fortescue（+1%）、Northern Star Resources（+3.1%）、Zip Co（+3.1%.）和Appen（+8.4%.）在采矿和技术领域取得了显著进展。

The S&P/ASX 200 Index surged 0.8% to around 8,560 on Friday, reaching new all-time highs, driven by strong performances in the mining and technology sectors. Australian stocks also tracked gains on Wall Street, where chip and AI stocks continued to recover from Monday’s selloff triggered by concerns over China’s DeepSeek, a new competitor to Western AI leaders. Additionally, local equities were bolstered by easing domestic inflation, which has fueled expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may soon begin cutting interest rates. Markets are currently pricing in a 95% likelihood of a 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate to 4.35% at the central bank’s meeting on February 18. Notable gains in the mining and technology sectors were seen in BHP Group (+1.6%), Fortescue (+1%), Northern Star Resources (+3.1%), Zip Co (+3.1%), and Appen (+8.4%).

2024年12月，澳大利亚私营部门信贷环比增长0.6%，与前三个月的增长率持平，保持了自6月以来的最高水平。这一结果超过了市场预期的0.5%的增长，这得益于住房信贷（0.5%）和商业信贷（0.8%）的稳定增长。此外，个人信贷增长0.5%，扭转了此前0.2%的下降趋势。截至12月的一年里，私营部门信贷激增6.5%，是自2023年4月以来的最快增速，此前11月增长了6.3%。

Private sector credit in Australia increased by 0.6% month-over-month in December 2024, matching the growth rate of the previous three months and maintaining its highest level since June. This result exceeded market expectations of a 0.5% growth, driven by stable rises in both housing credit (0.5%) and business credit (0.8%). Additionally, personal credit expanded by 0.5%, reversing a prior 0.2% decline. Through the year to December, private sector credit surged by 6.5%, the fastest pace since April 2023, following a 6.3% rise in November.