美联储议息会议强势来袭，鲍威尔首秀“鹰鸽齐飞”

摘要：

1 今晨美联储加息25个基点，但预期年内仍为三次加息，导致美元跌超0.68%，美股先涨后跌，分析师称，因美联储对经济前景的预期偏乐观，美股一开始是上扬的，但后来受未来加息次数更多的影响，国债收益率走高，这又把股市给吓退了。路透表示，此次是鲍威尔任主席以来的FOMC首秀，但他带来的问题多于答案，一方面加息且经济预期偏鹰，另一方面却措辞偏鸽，可谓“鹰鸽齐飞”。

 2.今晨美联储加息25个基点，美元行情再次转弱关注美元次低点。

FOMC如预期投票一致同意加息25个基点至1.75%，同时提高贴现利率25个基点至2.25%。FOMC声明：12个月通胀预计将在未来数月上升，稳定在2%附近。上调2018-2019年GDP增速预期，下调未来3年失业率预期，维持未来两年PCE通胀预期不变，上调2019-2020年核心PCE通胀预期。美国2月成屋销售总数年化好于前值538和预期540，实际公布为554。美联储主席鲍威尔：就业市场维持强劲，经济持续扩张，美联储将逐渐减码政策宽松，通胀可能将在某些时候高于2%，通胀率应该在未来几个月有所上升，逐步进行下一步加息能更好地达到美联储目标，过慢加息将对经济构成风险。

技术面走势：

FOMC如预期投票一致同意加息25个基点至1.75%，，从市场波动看，自1月份开始，美元指数变处于88.50-90.50震荡区间之内，目前测试重要支撑位89.30附近，在89.2附近看多，美元为92个第一目标位置，第二个目标位置为95。止损位置在88.

Technical trend:

The FOMC unanimously agreed to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% as expected. From the perspective of market fluctuations, since January, the U.S. dollar index has been within the range of 88.50-90.50 shocks, and is currently testing important support at around 89.30 and seeing around 89.2. In many cases, the dollar exchange rate is 92 first target positions and the second target position is 95. The stop loss position is 88.

道琼斯工业指数DJ30：道琼斯指数经过2016年和2017年的主升，在2018年终结了涨势，在2018年上半年关注是否面临ABC三级别调整，后市回调关注是否跌破2018.2.6号的低点，完成三级别回调。H4级别次级别回调，三角形收敛形态下方支撑趋势线确认空头。凌晨的利率决议公布带动道指空头回踩，目前看空头行情延续。

Dow Jones Industrial Index DJ30:

After the Dow Jones Index’s main rise in 2016 and 2017, it ended the uptrend in 2018. In the first half of 2018, whether it was faced with the ABC three-level adjustment, the market outlook callback attention fell below the low of 2018.2.6, completing the three levels. Callback. In the H4 level sub-level callback, the trend line below the triangle convergence pattern confirms the short position. The announcement of interest rate resolutions in the early morning led the Dow Short to step back and continued to see bearish prices.

黄金：黄金价格突破1330,目前有望挑战1350一线。总体黄金关注1340上方  在1350附近是否做空机会  止损前高。

Gold: The gold price exceeded 1330 and is currently expected to challenge the 1350 line. Overall gold attention above 1340 Whether to short the opportunity near 1350 Stop loss before high.

原油;收敛三角形收敛区突破，收盘站上64直接挑战前高，未来如果做空原油关注66附近，目标位置在55，止损前高。

Crude oil; Convergence triangle convergence zone breakthrough, the closing station on the 64 directly challenge the former high, the future if short of crude oil concerned about 66, the target position at 55, stop before the high.

今日市场关注：

① 08:30 澳大利亚2月季调后失业率

② 17:00 德国3月IFO商业景气指数、欧元区1月季调后经常帐、欧元区3月制造业PMI初值、欧洲央行公布经济公报

③ 17:30 英国2月季调后零售销售月率

④ 20:00 英国央行公布利率决议及会议纪要（重点）

⑤ 20:30 美国至3月17日当周初请失业金人数

⑥ 21:00 美国1月FHFA房价指数月率

⑦ 21:45 美国3月Markit制造业PMI初值、美国3月Markit服务业PMI初值

⑧ 22:00 美国2月谘商会领先指标月率

1 08:30 Australia's second-quarter adjusted unemployment rate

2 17:00 IFO business climate index in March in Germany, current account in the euro zone adjusted in January, initial value of manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in March, ECB’s economic bulletin

3 17:30 Britain's adjusted monthly retail sales rate in February

4 20:00 Bank of England announces interest rate resolution and meeting minutes (emphasis)

5 20:30 The number of jobless claims in the U.S. until March 17th

6 21:00 United States January FHFA house price index monthly rate

7 21:45 U.S. March Markit Manufacturing PMI Initial Value, U.S. March Markit Service PMI Initial Value

8 22:00 U.S. February Consultation Conference Leading Indicator Monthly Rate